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Archive for December 2006
As exciting as watching paint dry
December 30, 2006 by joel.
Posted in Random shit | Print | No Comments »
NFL playoff scenarios
December 29, 2006 by joel.
I didn’t write it, but it’s brought to you by the same person that did the other NFL post that I put up last week.
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
2006 Viewers’ Guide
and 19th Annual Playoff Charts
All Times Eastern
New York Giants at Washington Redskins, Saturday 8:00. In this first year of flexible scheduling,
when the league could cherry-pick a game to conclude the season on Sunday night, this was the one
game most appropriate to be chosen, the one game most likely to have wide-ranging playoff
implications. And it was the one game the league was contractually prohibited from choosing, because
it was scheduled for Saturday. Perhaps this is karmic retribution for putting this game on the NFL
Network and preventing most of America from seeing it.
In any case, the Giants essentially control their own destiny. If they win, they are so close to
making the playoffs, they might as well celebrate. The only way they miss the playoffs with a win is if
the Packers win tomorrow night and beat the Giants in a strength-of-victory tiebreaker. That tiebreaker
would see the Giants with 52 wins, plus the results of Dallas, Tampa Bay, Houston, and Carolina, and
the Packers with 46 wins, plus the results of Miami, Arizona, and San Francisco and double the results
of Detroit and Minnesota (the Packers beat each of them twice). And note that Detroit plays Dallas this
week, so that game essentially counts three times. If Dallas wins or ties, the Packers cannot win this
tiebreaker. If Dallas loses but so does Minnesota, the Packers can’t win either. Even if almost
everything goes right, and the Packers push this tiebreaker and go to overall strength of schedule, the
Packers there would need a whole lot more to go right: wins by all the AFC East teams and losses by
all the AFC South teams would help. So you see they have almost no chance and the Giants can pretty
much celebrate.
One thing that’s clear and simple is that a Giants victory eliminates the Panthers, Falcons, and
Rams all at once. Another thing that’s clear, though more complicated, is that a loss doesn’t eliminate
the Giants, but comes so close that they might as well pack. If the Giants lose and finish 7-9, in their
best-case scenario everyone else loses and they finish in a six-way tie (or optionally a seven-way tie if
the Niners win). The survivor of this scenario – which seems far-fetched but only requires all the home
teams except St. Louis to win – is the Giants.
NBC is rooting hard for a Redskins victory because it’s the best way to assure the network of an
audience for the Sunday night game.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints, Sunday 1:00. The New Orleans Saints, America’s Team,
have clinched a bye week and have nothing to gain today. They earned the America’s Team title like a
championship belt, taking it from the Cowboys mano a mano in a 42-17 drubbing Dec. 10, in Texas
Stadium and on national television. And that game is why the Saints have clinched a bye week. If
Dallas had won, the Cowboys would be holding the 2nd seed today and the Saints could reclaim it only
with help.
But enough of hypothetical playoff scenarios. In the actual standings, Carolina holds
tiebreakers against the Falcons and Rams, but not against the Giants or Packers. Thus, a Giants victory
last night would make this game meaningless for both participating teams. If the Giants lost or tied, the
Panthers can win and knock out the Falcons and Rams, then make the playoffs themselves if the
Packers lose or tie tonight.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, Sunday 1:00. The Cowboys, as a result of losing their America’s
Team crown to New Orleans, are going to play a first-round playoff game. They win the division, and
thereby host one of the 8-8 wild card pretenders, if they finish ahead of the Eagles – basically, if they
win this game and the Eagles lose. Otherwise the Cowboys go to Seattle. As for the Lions, this is a
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
2
must-win game – for the Packers. If the Giants won last night, then the Lions must win this game or
the Packers are eliminated.
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans, 1:00. One of only two games on the afternoon schedule
that’s meaningful to both teams. In fact, it’s meaningful to two other teams besides. The Titans make
the playoffs if they get to a tiebreaker with only themselves and the Chiefs. This means they’d have to
win, the Bengals would have to lose or tie, and the Chiefs would have to knock out Denver by winning
while the Broncos lose. The Patriots, meanwhile, have already won their division and cannot earn a
bye week. They can move from 4th seed to 3rd, for whatever that’s worth, by finishing ahead of the
Colts. It’s questionable whether that will motivate the Patriots – though if you’ve seen the way Coach
Belichick fills out his injury lists, everything about the Patriots is always “questionable.”
As for the two other teams I mentioned, those are the Jets and Jaguars. Say the Jets lose and the
Jaguars win, and at the same time the Bengals lose or tie. Then a Titans win here puts the Jets into the
playoffs, while a Titans loss or tie lets the Jaguars in. The reasoning is that the Jaguars have a
tiebreaker advantage over the Jets, the Jets have one over the Titans, and the Titans have one over the
Jaguars. In a two-way tie, the Jaguars eliminate the Jets. But in a three-way tie, the Titans-Jaguars
tiebreaker is evaluated first because those teams are in the same division. The Titans eliminate the
Jaguars, then are eliminated in turn by the Jets.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday 1:00. The other early game that’s meaningful
to both teams. Only the winner of this game can make the playoffs – and even then, probably not.
First, the Bengals would have to lose or tie. Then, if the Chiefs win, the Broncos would have to lose.
If the Jaguars win, the Jets would have to lose and the Titans would have to lose or tie. The funny
thing about this game is that it might determine a playoff seed for the Bengals. If the Bengals win and
the Jets win or tie, then the Bengals need the Chiefs’ help to knock Denver out of the tiebreaker. In
this scenario, neither the Jaguars nor the Chiefs can make the playoffs, but if the Chiefs don’t win this
game, then the Bengals are eliminated.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, Sunday 1:00. Only for the usual suspects: close friends and
family, and degenerate gamblers. Oh, and Packers fans. This is the doomsday scenario where –
because the Giants beat Houston Nov. 5 – the result of this unseen exhibition between two bad teams
in one conference can determine who makes the playoffs in the other conference. If Houston wins, the
Giants improve their strength of victory. The Packers can’t afford that.
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets, Sunday 1:00. The Jets are in if they win, in if they tie, and
almost in if they lose. They’re eliminated in only two scenarios. One is if they compete with
Cincinnati and Denver at 9-7. This means the Jets lose, Cincinnati wins, and Kansas City fails to
knock off Denver (i.e. Kansas City doesn’t win or Denver doesn’t lose). The Jets have the worst
conference record in this bunch. The other is if Denver wins the 5th seed and the Jets have to compete
with the Jaguars alone for the 6th seed. This means the Jets lose, Cincinnati loses or ties, Jacksonville
wins, and the Titans fail to knock off the Jaguars (i.e. the Titans lose or tie). The Jets lose this
tiebreaker because they lost to the Jaguars head-to-head Oct. 8 (and it wasn’t close). The Raiders,
meanwhile, are out – way, way, way out.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday 1:00. It’s said that there’s a curse on the loser of
the Super Bowl. For some time now, the league runner-up, year after year, has been sinking to the
bottom of the following year’s standings. This year it was the Steelers’ turn to suffer the curse – true,
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
3
the Steelers won the Super Bowl, technically, but this is more ammunition for Mike Holmgren to argue
that the Steelers should’ve lost and the officials screwed up the game.
The Steelers, wrapping up this disappointing season, are relegated to playing spoiler. The
Bengals cannot make the playoffs unless they win. Then even if they do, either the Jets have to lose, or
both the Jaguars and Broncos have to lose.
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday 1:00. A pure tune-up for the Seahawks, who
are locked into 4th seed, and a day off for fans of the 4-11 Buccaneers. This is another of those games
that will be monitored by Packers fans if the Giants won; the Packers will be rooting for Seattle.
St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday 1:00. The Vikings cannot make the playoffs at 7-9
because – well, first of all, no one should make the playoffs at 7-9. But in this case, it’s because they
were swept head-to-head by the Packers. The Rams have a shot at the playoffs if the Giants lost last
night and the Panthers lose now. They have to win, then sit back and wait for the Falcons to lose to the
Eagles. It’s that simple.
Oh, technically, they can also win if they tie. They would still need the Giants, Panthers, and
Falcons to lose, but it would be okay if the Packers merely tied instead of losing. Incidentally, this is
where I get to brag that my charts are the most complete, comprehensive, and accurate NFL playoff
information available anywhere. For example, take a look at the playoff scenarios officially released
by the league, posted at NFL.com and printed in newspapers around the country.1 I challenge you to
figure out from those scenarios who makes the playoffs if the Rams and Packers finish 7-8-1 and the
Giants, Panthers, and Falcons are 7-9. It’s not there, is it? Okay, now try if the Rams and Falcons are
7-8-1. Answer: the Falcons, because of a strength-of-victory tiebreaker that’s very close but out of
reach for the Rams – but you’ll only find that out from me.
All right, maybe the guy at the NFL who whips these things out on Christmas Day could’ve
omitted a couple of outlying scenarios inadvertently. It takes me most of the week to get it right
(although in my defense, no one’s paying me to work on it full-time). But what about the guy at CBS
SportsLine who dressed up the scenarios with full sentences and little logos of all the teams – but
posted the wrong scenarios? At the NFL site, it says Green Bay can clinch [a] playoff berth with:
“5) GB tie + NYG loss + STL loss + ATL loss or tie + CAR loss or tie.” Correct, as far as it goes. (It’s
missing the GB tie + STL tie scenario.) But at the CBS site,2 it says Green Bay can clinch a playoffberth with: “ A tie and a N.Y. Giants loss and a St. Louis loss or tie and a Carolina loss or tie.” Now
how’d that happen? It’s not only different but factually incorrect. For Green Bay to make the playoffs
with a tie and a St. Louis tie, either Carolina or Atlanta must also tie. That creates a three-way
tiebreaker, which neutralizes the St. Louis-over-Green Bay head-to-head two-way tiebreaker
advantage.
Or try this: “NFL tiebreaker expert” Joe Ferreira, a CBS SportsLine executive producer, posts
on his blog that “only DEN or NYJ can be the No. 5 seed.”3 Wrong! If the Bengals win, the Jets lose,
the Chiefs win, and the Broncos lose, then CIN can be the No. 5 seed. He also had before Week 16
that if the Jets won and the Bengals-Broncos game did not end in a tie, the Titans would be eliminated.
Now maybe the Bengals and Broncos would’ve wound up in a tie if the Bengals hadn’t flubbed an
extra point, but we’ll never know, and the point is that Ferreira got it wrong. Anyway, I’ll stop now.
I’ve neglected to let my record speak for itself.
1 http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9817776
2 http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/playoffrace/scenarios (as viewed Dec. 28 – see it before they fix it!)
3 http://www.sportsline.com/columns/weblogs/entry/9847051
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
4
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday 4:15. This game has meaning for the Eagles if the
Cowboys won or tied the early game. Then the Eagles have to match or outdo the Cowboys to hold on
to the division title. This would give the Eagles a home game in the first round. If they fall to second
place, they travel to Seattle in the first round. This game has meaning for the Falcons if neither the
Giants nor the Panthers won. Then the Falcons can make the playoffs with a win and a subsequent
Packers loss. (There are tie-game scenarios, too, which I won’t rehash here.) And finally, this game
has meaning for the Packers if the Giants and Panthers lost and the Rams won. (And not pie-in-the-sky
strength-of-victory meaning, either, but actual meaning.) In that scenario, a Falcons loss eliminates the
Packers. The Rams will beat the Packers in a two-way tiebreaker based on a head-to-head result
(“Favre’s Late Fumble Allows Rams to Get Away,” Associated Press, Oct. 8, 2006), but a Falcons win
makes this a three-way tiebreaker, which the Packers win based on conference record.
Arizona Cardinals at San Diego Chargers, Sunday 4:15. Bill Simmons, chafing at the ESPN.com
bit, made a recent crack involving Matt Vasgersian and J.C. Pearson, who inhabit a low rung of the
Fox broadcasting ladder. If Fox is contractually obligated to broadcast a game, but is only planning to
show it to the two TV markets involved, those are the guys they send. The joke wasn’t at their
expense: it was merely a surmise that they could’ve made their reservations for Cleveland six weeks in
advance to broadcast the Tampa Bay game there. To me, that’s one way to know you live in Arizona:
you not only recognize the names of Matt Vasgersian and J.C. Pearson, you have an opinion of the
quality of their work. (A positive one, by the way.)
The Cardinals, who are only dangerous when they have nothing to play for, have nothing to
play for. Therefore, they are dangerous. The Chargers, though, have their bye week wrapped up. They
will have home-field advantage, too, unless they lose and the Ravens win. The game will be broadcast
only in Arizona and southern California.4
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos, Sunday 4:15. If the Chiefs lost or tied the early game, then
the Broncos can and will take this game off. If the Chiefs won, though, then the Broncos must win or
they will be eliminated. This reminds me of a few years ago when I was in Vegas and the way the early
games shook out, the Broncos could take their late game off. They were playing the Packers, who still
needed very much to win. In the minutes before game time, the line shifted tectonically and the
Broncos were suddenly getting +800 (bet $10 and if the Broncos win, you win $80). I thought, “No
matter how much the Broncos aren’t trying, they have better than an 8 to 1 shot at winning,” and bet on
them. Needless to say, the Packers rolled over them. The lesson, as always: I hate the Broncos.
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday 4:15. If the Patriots won or tied the early game, then
the Colts need to match or outdo them in order to hold on to the 3rd seed. That admittedly isn’t much
of an incentive. But the Colts can also grab a bye week if they win and the Ravens lose. The Dolphins
don’t have much to play for except pride, but neither have a lot of the teams that have been beating the
Colts lately.
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday 4:15. The Ravens have a bye week unless they lose and
the Colts win. The Ravens get home-field advantage in the playoffs if they win and the Chargers lose.
All three of the relevant games are scheduled at the same time. I think that’s on purpose. Under flex
scheduling, the league had the ability to move some games from 1:00 to 4:15, and the Colts and Ravens
are the AFC games the league chose.
4 http://www.gribblenation.net/nflmaps/17-FOX-L.gif
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
5
Did you notice, by the way, that all the late games are at 4:15, with none at 4:05? (Or did you
notice in the first place that some late games used to be at 4:05?) The reason for this is that both
networks have doubleheaders this week. Yes, that’s right, if you’re not in the TV market of a home
game on Sunday, you get to watch five games. This is just one of the improvements in the new TV
contract this year.
Another little-noted but major improvement is that one network can now show highlights of a
game in progress on the other network. The old rule was that they’d have to wait for the game to be
over. This means there can be “game breaks” showing any game in the league and there can be more
highlight videos on halftime shows. This is a major improvement over last year, when a Fox halftime
show would go something like this: “Here’s a field goal in St. Louis … here’s a one-yard slant pass for
a touchdown in Green Bay … and whoa, there have been all kinds of spectacular plays in this
barnburner in Cincinnati, 28-24 at halftime – take our word for it.”
The jury is out on whether Monday night games on cable are an improvement. More people
overall watch TV on Sunday than on any other night, so for ratings’ sake, it made sense to move the
over-the-air broadcast to Sunday and the cable game to Monday. The swap was also a necessary part
of the agreement wherein CBS and Fox would let their games be yanked off their networks for “flex
scheduling.” But fans have been trained – for their entire lifetimes, if they’re any younger than I am –
to expect the best game of the week on Monday night. Or at least the league’s best attempt to schedule
the best game of the week (that’s where flex scheduling comes in). Sundays on ESPN were always
designed to give the bad and mediocre teams a shot at the spotlight. A culture grew up around the
Monday Night Football experience. The league wants to have its cake and eat it too: a bigger TV
audience on Sunday night, where the viewers are, and the sports-bar crowd on Monday night not caring
if their games are second-best. This will probably work. It might help if someone educated the fans to
expect less on Monday – not only lesser games, but because of cable-size salaries, lesser announcers.
But eventually people will get used to the new regime. I think it’s a net positive for the league.
The NFL Network, not so much. Taking your fans hostage in a firefight between yourself and
some billion-dollar cable companies is, at best, counterproductive. This is greedy and harms the
public. The same can be said of DirecTV’s exclusive grasp on the Sunday Ticket package, a monopoly
which has drawn the basilisk gaze of the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee. The league is on thin ice
here and, if wisdom prevails, will soon grab a rope.5
The one change I’d like to see in the league is the adoption of the college overtime system.
That’s not because the current system is unfair. I am unable to develop a full mathematical argument
involving field position, and how it differs on kickoffs versus punts, without completely making up my
figures and forgoing all credibility. However, it’s an empirical fact that the team winning the overtime
coin flip wins the game only half the time. Ergo, the current system is fair. No, I want the college
system because (a.) it’s compelling entertainment, and (b.) it eliminates ties. In a season like this,
when practically the entire league is within half a game of .500, the tiebreaker charts are inordinately
difficult. I’ve spent way too much time on this. But if tie-game scenarios didn’t exist, then the whole
league could be 8-8 and I could still knock this out in three hours.
Oh, and I have one game to go.
5 After unveiling the sterling prose of “basilisk gaze,” I had to jeté back to clichésville. (Apologies to Dennis Miller, the
Tony Kornheiser of six years ago.)
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
6
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, Sunday 8:15. This is the game the league hand-picked to
broadcast in prime time as the last game of the regular season. If the Giants lost last night, then this
was a great choice because it’s almost guaranteed to decide whether the Packers or some other team
makes the playoffs. If the Giants won, though (or if the Panthers and Falcons lost and the Rams won),
then this is a mere exhibition, wherein Brett Favre tries to pad his statistics one last time against the
Bears’ second string. I’m assuming, of course, that the Packers lose the strength of victory tiebreaker;
by game time, we’ll know for sure, but it’s a pretty safe assumption. (I’m also making the wildly
unsupported assumption that this game will mark “one last time” for Brett Favre.) The Bears, for their
part, have clinched home-field advantage in the playoffs and will be resting their starters.
And now that I’m done, I too will be resting … uh, for starters. Tonight I’ll be proofreading
while watching the Holiday Bowl. Tomorrow night I’ll be taking questions while watching Texas
Tech at the Insight Bowl – which would mean I’d have to be at the Insight Bowl (which I haven’t ruled
out) because the game is broadcast on the NFL Network. Yes, they have their tentacles everywhere.
And nothing says “NFL” like a college team from Lubbock.
The playoff analysis you are reading is, as far as I know, the best in the world. (If it’s not, I
want to know about it, so let me know.) Pass it on. Have fun and drive safely. Tip your waitress.
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
7
2006 Playoff Charts
AFC
Sun Sun Sun Sun
1:00 4:15 4:15 4:15
NE Buf Mia Phx
@Ten @Bal @Ind @SD #1 #2 #3 #4
========================================
NE Buf Mia* — SD Bal NE Ind
NE Buf Ind — SD Ind Bal NE
NE Bal Mia* Phx Bal SD NE Ind
NE Bal Mia* SD* SD Bal NE Ind
NE Bal Ind Phx Bal SD Ind NE
NE Bal Ind SD* SD Bal Ind NE
NE tie Mia* — SD Bal NE Ind
NE tie Ind — SD Bal Ind NE
Ten Buf Mia* — SD Bal Ind NE
Ten Buf Ind — SD Ind Bal NE
Ten Bal — Phx Bal SD Ind NE
Ten Bal — SD* SD Bal Ind NE
Ten tie — – SD Bal Ind NE
tie Buf Mia — SD Bal NE Ind
tie Buf Ind — SD Ind Bal NE
tie Buf tie — SD Bal Ind NE
tie Bal Mia Phx Bal SD NE Ind
tie Bal Mia SD* SD Bal NE Ind
tie Bal Ind* Phx Bal SD Ind NE
tie Bal Ind* SD* SD Bal Ind NE
tie tie Mia — SD Bal NE Ind
tie tie Ind* — SD Bal Ind NE
Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun
1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 4:15
Oak Pit Jax NE SF
@NYJ @Cin @KC @Ten @Den #5 #6
===================================
Oak Pit* Jax NE* — Den Jax
Oak Pit* Jax Ten — Den NYJ
Oak Pit* KC NE* SF NYJ KC
Oak Pit* KC NE* Den* Den NYJ
Oak Pit* KC Ten SF NYJ Ten
Oak Pit* KC Ten Den* Den NYJ
Oak Pit* tie — – Den NYJ
Oak Cin Jax* — – Den Cin
Oak Cin KC — SF Cin NYJ
Oak Cin KC — Den* Den Cin
NYJ Pit* Jax* — SF* NYJ Den
NYJ Pit* Jax* — Den Den NYJ
NYJ Pit* KC NE* SF NYJ KC
NYJ Pit* KC NE* Den Den NYJ
NYJ Pit* KC NE* tie NYJ Den
NYJ Pit* KC Ten SF NYJ Ten
NYJ Pit* KC Ten Den Den NYJ
NYJ Pit* KC Ten tie NYJ Den
NYJ Cin Jax* — SF* NYJ Den
NYJ Cin Jax* — Den Den NYJ
NYJ Cin KC — SF NYJ Cin
NYJ Cin KC — Den Den NYJ
NYJ Cin KC — tie NYJ Den
tie Pit* Jax* — SF NYJ Den
tie Pit* Jax* — Den* Den NYJ
tie Pit* KC NE* SF NYJ KC
tie Pit* KC NE* Den* Den NYJ
tie Pit* KC Ten SF NYJ Ten
tie Pit* KC Ten Den* Den NYJ
tie Cin Jax* — SF NYJ Den
tie Cin Jax* — Den* Den NYJ
tie Cin KC — SF NYJ Cin
tie Cin KC — Den* Den NYJ
*
In case of tie, read this row.
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
8
NFC (Simplified)
This chart assumes there are no ties.
#1=Chi #2=NO #4=Sea
Sat Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun
8:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 4:15 8:30
NYG Car StL Det Atl GB
@Was @NO @Min @Dal @Phi @Chi #3 #5 #6
==============================================
NYG — – Det — GB Phi Dal NYG***
NYG — – Det — Chi Phi Dal NYG
NYG — – Dal Atl — Dal Phi NYG
NYG — – Dal Phi — Phi Dal NYG
Was Car — Det — GB Phi Dal GB
Was Car — Det — Chi Phi Dal Car
Was Car — Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB
Was Car — Dal Atl Chi Dal Phi Car
Was Car — Dal Phi GB Phi Dal GB
Was Car — Dal Phi Chi Phi Dal Car
Was NO StL Det Atl GB Phi Dal GB
Was NO StL Det Atl Chi Phi Dal Atl
Was NO StL Det Phi — Phi Dal StL
Was NO StL Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB
Was NO StL Dal Atl Chi Dal Phi Atl
Was NO StL Dal Phi — Phi Dal StL
Was NO Min Det Atl GB Phi Dal GB
Was NO Min Det Atl Chi Phi Dal Atl
Was NO Min Det Phi GB Phi Dal GB
Was NO Min Det Phi Chi Phi Dal NYG
Was NO Min Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB
Was NO Min Dal Atl Chi Dal Phi Atl
Was NO Min Dal Phi GB Phi Dal GB
Was NO Min Dal Phi Chi Phi Dal NYG
*** GB overtakes NYG in a tiebreaker based on strength of victory only in the
following limited scenario: First, Det must win. Second, either (a.) every one
of these seven teams wins: Cle, Min, NO, Sea, Mia, Phx, and SF, or (b.) six of
the listed teams win and one of them (except Min) ties. If (a.) or (b.) happens,
then GB is #6 and NYG is eliminated. If (c.) six of the listed teams win and one
of them (except Min) loses, (d.) five of the listed teams win and two of them
(other than Min) tie, or (e.) six of the listed teams win and Min ties, then GB
and NYG proceed to the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker. In all other cases,
including any case where Min loses, NYG is #6 and GB is eliminated.
In the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker, GB overtakes NYG only if the number
of wins by NE, NYJ, StL, and Buf exceeds by more than 2 the number of wins byJax, Ten, and Ind. If the excess is exactly 2, then the teams proceed to “best
combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.”
NYG has a reasonably safe lead in this category.
For the purpose of calculating the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker, ties
count as half a win. For the tiebreaker to have reached this stage, StL cannot
have won, but may have tied.
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
9
NFC (Traditional)
#1=Chi #2=NO #4=Sea
Chart 1: Giants win
Sun Sun Sun
1:00 4:15 8:30
Det Atl GB
@Dal @Phi @Chi #3 #5 #6
=================================
Det — GB Phi Dal NYG***
Det — Chi* Phi Dal NYG
Dal Atl* — Dal Phi NYG
Dal Phi — Phi Dal NYG
tie Atl — Dal Phi NYG
tie Phi* — Phi Dal NYG
Chart 2: Giants lose or tie
Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun
1:00 1:00 1:00 4:15 8:30
Car StL Det Atl GB
@NO @Min @Dal @Phi @Chi #3 #5 #6
==========================================
Car — Det — GB Phi Dal GB
Car — Det — Chi* Phi Dal Car
Car — Dal Atl* GB Dal Phi GB
Car — Dal Atl* Chi* Dal Phi Car
Car — Dal Phi GB Phi Dal GB
Car — Dal Phi Chi* Phi Dal Car
Car — tie Atl GB Dal Phi GB
Car — tie Atl Chi* Dal Phi Car
Car — tie Phi* GB Phi Dal GB
Car — tie Phi* Chi* Phi Dal Car
NO* StL Det Atl GB Phi Dal GB
NO* StL Det Atl Chi* Phi Dal Atl
NO* StL Det Phi* — Phi Dal StL
NO* StL Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB
NO* StL Dal Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl
NO* StL Dal Phi — Phi Dal StL
NO* StL Dal tie — Dal Phi StL
NO* StL tie Atl GB Dal Phi GB
NO* StL tie Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl
NO* StL tie Phi* — Phi Dal StL
NO Min Det Atl GB Phi Dal GB
NO Min Det Atl Chi* Phi Dal Atl
NO Min Det Phi GB Phi Dal GB
NO Min Det Phi Chi Phi Dal NYG
NO Min Det Phi tie Phi Dal GB**
NO Min Det tie GB Phi Dal GB
NO Min Det tie Chi Phi Dal Atl**
NO Min Det tie tie Phi Dal GB**
NO Min Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB
NO Min Dal Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl
NO Min Dal Phi GB Phi Dal GB
NO Min Dal Phi Chi Phi Dal NYG
NO Min Dal Phi tie Phi Dal GB**
NO Min Dal tie GB Dal Phi GB
NO Min Dal tie Chi Dal Phi Atl**
NO Min Dal tie tie Dal Phi GB**
NO Min tie Atl GB Dal Phi GB
NO Min tie Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl
NO Min tie Phi GB Phi Dal GB
NO Min tie Phi Chi Phi Dal NYG
NO Min tie Phi tie Phi Dal GB**
NO Min tie tie GB Phi Dal GB
NO Min tie tie Chi Phi Dal Atl**
NO Min tie tie tie Phi Dal GB**
Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun
1:00 1:00 1:00 4:15 8:30
Car StL Det Atl GB
@NO @Min @Dal @Phi @Chi #3 #5 #6
==========================================
NO tie Det Atl GB Phi Dal GB
NO tie Det Atl Chi* Phi Dal Atl
NO tie Det Phi GB Phi Dal GB
NO tie Det Phi Chi* Phi Dal StL**
NO tie Det tie GB Phi Dal GB
NO tie Det tie Chi Phi Dal Atl**
NO tie Det tie tie Phi Dal GB**
NO tie Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB
NO tie Dal Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl
NO tie Dal Phi GB Phi Dal GB
NO tie Dal Phi Chi* Phi Dal StL**
NO tie Dal tie GB Dal Phi GB
NO tie Dal tie Chi Dal Phi Atl**
NO tie Dal tie tie Dal Phi GB**
NO tie tie Atl GB Dal Phi GB
NO tie tie Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl
NO tie tie Phi GB Phi Dal GB
NO tie tie Phi Chi* Phi Dal StL**
NO tie tie tie GB Phi Dal GB
NO tie tie tie Chi Phi Dal Atl**
NO tie tie tie tie Phi Dal GB**
tie Min* Det Atl GB Phi Dal GB
tie Min* Det Atl Chi* Phi Dal Atl
tie Min* Det Phi* GB Phi Dal GB
tie Min* Det Phi* Chi Phi Dal Car**
tie Min* Det Phi* tie Phi Dal GB**
tie Min* Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB
tie Min* Dal Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl
tie Min* Dal Phi GB Phi Dal GB
tie Min* Dal Phi Chi Phi Dal Car**
tie Min* Dal Phi tie Phi Dal GB**
tie Min* Dal tie GB Dal Phi GB
tie Min* Dal tie Chi Dal Phi Car**
tie Min* Dal tie tie Dal Phi GB**
tie Min* tie Atl GB Dal Phi GB
tie Min* tie Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl
tie Min* tie Phi* GB Phi Dal GB
tie Min* tie Phi* Chi Phi Dal Car**
tie Min* tie Phi* tie Phi Dal GB**
* In case of tie, read this row.
** In case of NYG tie, NYG is #6, replacing the team listed here.
*** See footnote to NFC Simplified chart.
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
10
2006 AFC Team-By-Team
San Diego Chargers (13-2) are West Division champions, have clinched a bye week, and control their
own destiny for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They will be 1st seed if they win or tie
at home against Arizona, or if the Ravens lose or tie at home against Buffalo. They will be 2nd seed if
they lose and the Ravens win.
Baltimore Ravens (12-3) are North Division champions and control their own destiny for a bye week.
They will have a bye week if they win or tie at home against Buffalo, or the Colts lose or tie at home
against Miami. In addition, they will be 1st seed if they win and the Chargers lose at home against
Arizona. They will be 3rd seed, and host a first-round game, if they lose and the Colts win.
Indianapolis Colts (11-4) are South Division champions. They will have a bye week, as 2nd seed, if
they win at home against Miami and the Ravens lose at home against Buffalo. Otherwise they will host
a first-round game. They will be 3rd seed if they win and the Ravens win or tie, if they lose and the
Patriots lose at Tennessee, or if they tie and the Patriots lose or tie. They will be 4th seed if they lose
and the Patriots win or tie, or if they tie and the Patriots win.
New England Patriots (11-4) are East Division champions and will host a first-round game. They
will be 3rd seed if they win at Tennessee and the Colts lose or tie at home against Miami, or if they tie
and the Colts lose. Otherwise they will be 4th seed.
Denver Broncos (9-6) control their own destiny for a wild-card berth. They will be 5th seed if they
win at home against San Francisco; or if they lose, the Jets lose at home against Oakland, and the
Chiefs lose or tie at home against Jacksonville. They will also be 5th seed if they tie and the Jets lose
or tie. They will be 6th seed if they lose, the Jets win or tie, and the Chiefs lose or tie; or if they tie and
the Jets win. They will be eliminated if they lose and the Chiefs win.
New York Jets (9-6) control their own destiny for a wild-card berth. If they win at home against
Oakland, they make the playoffs. They will then be 5th seed if the Broncos lose or tie at home against
San Francisco, or 6th seed if the Broncos win.
If they tie, they also make the playoffs. They will be 5th seed if the Broncos lose, or 6th seed if
the Broncos win or tie.
If they lose, they can be eliminated. The rest of this paragraph assumes that the Jets lose: They
will be 5th seed if (a.) the Bengals lose or tie at home against Pittsburgh and (b.) the Jaguars lose at
Kansas City and the Broncos lose. They will be 6th seed if (a.) the Bengals win and (b.) the Jaguars
and Broncos lose. They will also be 6th seed if (a.) the Bengals lose or tie and (b.) either (i.) the
Jaguars lose and the Broncos win or tie, (ii.) the Jaguars tie, or (iii.) the Jaguars win and the Titans win
at home against New England. They will be eliminated if (a.) the Bengals win and (b.) either the
Jaguars or Broncos, or both, win or tie. They will also be eliminated if (a.) the Bengals lose or tie and
(b.) the Jaguars win and the Titans lose or tie.
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
11
Cincinnati Bengals (8-7) must win and have help to earn a wild-card berth. If they win at home
against Pittsburgh and either (a.) the Jets lose at home against Oakland or (b.) the Broncos lose at home
against San Francisco and the Jaguars lose at Kansas City, then they make the playoffs. If both (a.) and
(b.) happen, they will be 5th seed. If only one happens, they will be 6th seed. If neither one happens,
they will be eliminated.
Kansas City Chiefs (8-7) must win and have significant help to earn a wild-card berth. If they win at
home against Jacksonville, the Bengals lose or tie at home against Pittsburgh, and the Broncos lose at
home against San Francisco, then they will be 6th seed. Otherwise they will be eliminated.
Tennessee Titans (8-7) must win and have lots of help to earn a wild-card berth. If they win at home
against New England, the Bengals lose or tie at home against Pittsburgh, the Jaguars lose at Kansas
City, and the Broncos lose at home against San Francisco, then they will be 6th seed. Otherwise they
will be eliminated.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) must win and have lots of help to earn a wild-card berth. If they win at
Kansas City, the Jets lose at home against Oakland, the Bengals lose or tie at home against Pittsburgh,
and the Titans lose or tie at home against New England, then they will be 6th seed. Otherwise they will
be eliminated.
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
12
2006 NFC Team-By-Team
Chicago Bears (13-2) are North Division champions and have clinched home-field advantage
throughout the playoffs.
New Orleans Saints (10-5) are South Division champions and have clinched a bye week.
Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) have clinched a playoff berth and control their own destiny to win the East
Division. They will win the division, and host a first-round game, if they win at home against Atlanta,
if they lose and the Cowboys lose at home against Detroit, or if they tie and the Cowboys lose or tie.
Otherwise they will be a wild card. If they are division champions, they will be 3rd seed; if they are a
wild card, they will be 5th seed.
Dallas Cowboys (9-6) have clinched a playoff berth. They will win the East Division, and host a firstround
game, if they win at home against Detroit and the Eagles lose or tie at home against Atlanta, or if
they tie and the Eagles lose. Otherwise they will be a wild card. If they are division champions, they
will be 3rd seed; if they are a wild card, they will be 5th seed.
Seattle Seahawks (8-7) are West Division champions and will host a first-round game. They are
locked into the 4th seed and will play the Cowboys or Eagles.
New York Giants (7-8) are almost definitely in the playoffs if they win and almost definitely out of the
playoffs if they lose. They cannot win the division and can only be the 6th seed wild card.
The Giants make the playoffs if they win at Washington and the Packers lose or tie at Chicago.
In addition, if the Giants and Packers both win, then the Giants make the playoffs as long as they beat
the Packers in a strength of victory tiebreaker. The Packers cannot win this tiebreaker if the Cowboys
win at home against Detroit, and are unlikely to win it even if the Cowboys lose.*
The Giants make the playoffs if they lose, as long as the Panthers lose at New Orleans, the
Rams lose at Minnesota, the Falcons lose at Philadelphia, and the Packers lose at Chicago. They make
the playoffs if they tie as long as all four of those opponents lose or tie.
Green Bay Packers (7-8) can make the playoffs, as the 6th seed wild card, if they win, and are
eliminated if they lose.
The Packers make the playoffs if they win at Chicago, the Giants lose or tie at Washington, and
the Rams lose or tie at Minnesota. The Packers also make the playoffs if they win, the Giants lose or
tie, and the Rams win, as long as either the Panthers win at New Orleans or the Falcons win at
Philadelphia, or both the Panthers and Falcons win.
In addition, the Packers make the playoffs if they win and the Giants win, but only if they beat
the Giants in a strength of victory tiebreaker. The Packers cannot win this tiebreaker if the Cowboys
win at home against Detroit, and are unlikely to win it even if the Cowboys lose.
The Packers make the playoffs if they tie, as long as the Giants lose, the Rams lose, the
Panthers lose or tie, and the Falcons lose or tie. The Packers also make the playoffs if they tie, the
Giants lose, and the Rams tie, as long as either the Panthers or Falcons tie, or both do.
* See footnotes to the NFC Chart for details of the strength of victory tiebreaker.
© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.
13
Carolina Panthers (7-8) need help to make the playoffs, as the 6th seed wild card, and are eliminated
if they lose. The Panthers make the playoffs if they win at New Orleans, the Giants lose or tie at
Washington, and the Packers lose or tie at Chicago. The Panthers also make the playoffs if they tie, as
long as the Giants and Packers lose, the Rams lose or tie at Minnesota, and the Falcons lose or tie at
Philadelphia.
Atlanta Falcons (7-8) need significant help to make the playoffs, as the 6th seed wild card, and are
eliminated if they lose. The Falcons make the playoffs if they win at Philadelphia, the Giants lose or
tie at Washington, the Panthers lose or tie at New Orleans, and the Packers lose or tie at Chicago. The
Falcons also make the playoffs if they tie, the Giants, Panthers, and Packers all lose, and the Rams lose
or tie at Minnesota.
St. Louis Rams (7-8) need significant help to make the playoffs, as the 6th seed wild card, and are
eliminated if they lose. The Rams make the playoffs if they win at Minnesota, the Giants lose or tie at
Washington, the Panthers lose or tie at New Orleans, and the Falcons lose or tie at Philadelphia. The
Rams also make the playoffs if they tie, the Giants, Panthers, and Falcons all lose, and the Packers lose
or tie at Chicago.
Minnesota Vikings (6-9) are eliminated from the playoffs. In their best-case scenario, they finish in
either a six-way tie for the 6th seed with the Giants, Packers, Panthers, Falcons, and Rams or a sevenway
tie with those teams plus the 49ers. In either case, the Packers eliminate the Vikings on account of
a head-to-head sweep.
San Francisco 49ers (6-9) are eliminated from the playoffs. In their best-case scenario, they finish in a
seven-way tie for the 6th seed with the Giants, Packers, Panthers, Falcons, Rams, and Vikings. In that
case, the 49ers eliminate the Rams by superior division record, but after the Packers eliminate the
Vikings by head-to-head tiebreaker, the Giants and Packers eliminate all their other opponents,
including the 49ers, by superior conference record.
Posted in Random shit | Print | No Comments »
Found on a CafePress shirt
December 28, 2006 by joel.
“Being born in the south doesn’t make one a Southerner. A cat may have kittens in an oven, but that doesn’t make them biscuits.“
Posted in Random shit | Print | No Comments »
Las Vegas trip report
December 26, 2006 by joel.
I posted this on lasvegasadvisor.com, but I know some of you are not members there, and I am sick of answering “how was Vegas?” so this will take care of that. The lingo is all designed for the Las Vegas Advisor crowd, so if you have questions about anything, just e-mail me.
_______________
I have heard enough stories about the war, and now that Grandma is safely watching figure skating that Grandpa taped for her earlier today, it’s time to tie up some loose ends, of which some include writing this here trip report.
So hello from Napa. I will be typing away for a bit, and perhaps you’ll read it all. We’ll see. I am really beat, so there is no checks and balances system for my rambling this time. You’ve been warned.
So I got everything packed on the 11th except for my cell phone charger (forgot) and left San Jose at 10 a.m. It was just one thing after another that morning, and despite waking up at 6:30, it took forever to get going.
I stopped off at the credit union and took some money out. I told the gal I would be back in a week and a half to return it, along with some new friends, but like most 20-year-old blond tellers with low-cut shirts, she had no sense of humor and must have thought I was using it to loan a friend so he could stock up on Sudafed for his newest meth lab. (I don’t know when financial institutions decided to start hiring nubile chicks as tellers, but quite frankly I’d prefer my eye candy to be in a less-professional setting than my credit union. They understand what’s going on about as well as your standard slot club boothling and are about as attentive and polite. If you’re going to spend your life not using your brain while at work, that’s fine, but please be my server, bartender or hooker. I don’t want you to ever be my primary source of important information if you’re not going to use your two remaining brain cells — one is lost and the other is looking for it.)
Then again, asking for a bunch of ones for tips likely got me categorized as just another strip club visitor by her anyway. I need them for the cocktail servers when I play video poker, honest!
So I got back on the freeway. Things were pretty nondescript for a few hours. But I do weird things when I drive, and sometimes these things can get me in trouble.
I love cruise control. I think it is the greatest invention since sliced ham. And when I am on the freeway, I play “How Far to the Right Can I Be on the Freeway While Leaving Cruise Control On?” In other words, maintain speed, but don’t block passing lanes unless you’re passing someone.
I need to take 46 to get from I-5 to 99. However, an 18-wheeler is, unbeknown to its driver, in my way, but because I am so stubborn, I neither speed up nor slow down. I miss my exit. I can’t even do some weird maneuver to sneak in at the last minute. The truck was positioned perfectly and going the perfect speed so that I was passing him as we passed the exit. Oops. Well, what’s the next crossroad to 99?
That would be 58. 58 is normally what I take from 99 to I-15 anyway, so it just means I won’t have to take 99 anymore. I get onto 58, and there is no traffic. I am thinking, “Why didn’t I go this way before?” Once I enter Bakersfield city limits I quickly understand why.
It’s only 2:30 p.m., but traffic is awful. And there are a million lights. And they aren’t synchronized. And they are all red. At this point of course, I just need to deal with it, because I don’t know the side streets and don’t want to make things even worse.
I don’t remember much else after that. There’s road construction on I-15, but that’s no surprise. So then around 6:30 I pull into the Aladdin parking lot. Of course the whole way here I am thinking of the thread I made about the best way to get to Aladdin from the freeway. Well, because my Audrie issues were unresolved, I found out the hard way that the Bally buildings block a bon voyage to Audrie. Fine. I make a right at the next street and go through some weird kung fu hideout before ending up on the other side of Audrie. So I make a right onto Audrie and a left into the parking garage. I accidentally figured it out.
There is no one in line at check-in, and she gives me room 3687, which is the street number of my grandparents’ house, which is where I am right now. This is just a coincidence. It’s not even irony.
Aladdin is slowly becoming Planet Hollywood. Slowly. I think it is taking so long because all the construction workers have to traverse the Dessert Passage shops before reaching the construction site. Some days, they reach the site just in time to go home. Dessert Passage execs don’t mind this, however, because the extra foot traffic makes them appear to actually be selling things in the shops.
Back to 3687. It has a purple door. All purple-doored hotel rooms have some sort of theme, meaning an outfit of an actor from a movie is on a wall, and there are lithographs or photographs or cels or something from said movie on the walls as well.
In my case, the movie was Get Shorty. Bette Midler’s outfit is on a wall, behind what likely was some sort of thick glass protection. A mannequin is wearing it, and I do not know enough about Bette Midler to make jokes about her or the mannequin here. On the wall near the window is a framed whatever of John Travolta, and in the bathroom is another framed whatever of Travolta and three other stars of the film (not Midler).
Speaking of the window, I had a view of everything on the strip, including the Bellagio Fountains. I didn’t ask for all this fancy stuff, but I sure got it. Those who appreciate these things should ask for 3687, or at least an odd-numbered room on a high floor.
Aladdin has lousy video poker. I found 8/5 BP in single-line, 3P and 5P dollars. Hmm.
I should explain how I gamble. I call it the Rainman method. I run $100 through a machine every day that I stay somewhere. However, I am not Rainman. If I get the meter up to $1,000, I cash out. I just don’t have the attention span to lose that much money at once, so I say, “Fine. Give me your money. See if I care.”
So I played five-play 8/5 bonus poker dollars for about three minutes, and I had fulfilled my obligation for the day. Now it was time to play poker.
Aladdin’s poker room is in a different place every time I visit. Right now it is upstairs, near the aforementioned VP machines. All in all, quite convenient. I bought in for $120 and played the 3-6 game for four hours and made $20.
At the end of the 11th, +$20 for poker and -$100 for VP. -$80 overall.
I woke up on the 12th, ready for my first full day of action. First stop, the $15 Spice Market Breakfast Buffet. It opens at 7, and I am one of the first people there, right next to all the senior citizens that no doubt have been awake for two hours already. The buffet is fine, but it wasn’t breathtaking. At least they have chocolate milk. This is a big deal to me. And no, I don’t want to add chocolate syrup to white milk. That’s cheating. If you do it for me, Mr. Server, don’t tell me! Let me pretend not to notice that the second one you brought out is a slightly different shade of brown and that there is a big brown smudge on the side of the glass that you missed when you were stirring.
On my first day, I like to use whatever I’ve received in the mail and get them out of the way. That consisted of one thing: Get 300 base credits at Caesars and get a free collared denim shirt, which I could use at work, because it is business casual, which means “wear any damn thing you want to cover your upper body, so long as it has a collar.” However, there were coupons in the in-room magazines for a coupon sheet at Tropicana and a funbook at the New Frontier. (Actually, the Trop’s is for a deck of cards, and the New Frontier’s is for a $5 match play, but that’s not what you actually get. You still get those things, of course. The coupon sheet accompanies the deck of cards and includes a match play. The New Frontier funbook has a $5 MP as one of the coupons in it.)
The astute reader will notice that those three casinos are on the strip. Splendid. So I walked from Aladdin to Tropicana. As I passed the M&M place, someone asked me where the MGM was. I told her I was going that way so she could follow me, and this turned into an opportunity for her to ask me my life story while we were walking. Luckily, my phone then rang.
I refuse to check e-mail when I am on vacation. That is because when I am not on vacation, all I do is check e-mail. However, I always have my phone with me. You never know when someone is going to need you, and as a seller on eBay, it is important for me to be there for my suckers, er, customers. Such was the case here.
Someone paid for something with a money order, and I never received it, so she was calling to see where the item was. She needed it for a Christmas present. I told her that it had not arrived, and because of the situation, I would return it to her when I got home, because I would not get back in time to send her the item before Christmas. I don’t think people realize that when you live in Ohio and it’s 9:45 a.m. that it is 7:45 a.m. in California (let alone Vegas). Luckily, I had gone to bed early the night before and gotten up early on the 12th.
By now, I have passed the entrance to the MGM, and this stranger had left my life (ostensibly) forever. I was off to the Trop.
I got my coupon sheet. All I could find that was playable was $1 8/5 bonus VP, so I gave them $100. I know when I was a member before I received stuff in the mail from them, so maybe I will again. I gave them and the New Frontier a lot of action this trip, which is sort of stupid because they both will not be around much longer. Then again, my play at Stardust did get me $10 in freeplay for staying at Orleans.
Incidentally, I had been away from the Trop for so long that I was considered new again. With 100 points I would get a T-shirt. I didn’t get enough points on my $100, but I have so many T-shirts, I decided to let it go.
The Trop has that $20 gets you $50 in the gaffed machines promotion. Years ago, I did it to get the stuffed Siberian tiger, which made an excellent gift for my mother. Surveying the consolation prizes, I saw the same tiger. Nothing else was catlike enough for Mom, so I decided I would have to find a gift for someone else. The dice clock will do nicely, I thought. And a few minutes later my $20 turned into one. I gave it to my friend that visited for the weekend. She didn’t want it but knew who would. That’s good enough for me.
While I was there, someone won $50, which was Ned Flanders’ favorite kind of surprise: mild. The way this promo works is that you must use your 50 credits (three at a time) on these gaffed machines, and each spin results in nothing, 15 credits, 30 credits, $50, $100 and $500.
You’ll notice that 50 is not divisible by three. I guess it would be more accurate to say you get 51 credits, because the last two are good enough for a spin.
So I got the dice clock and now had to carry that around with me. I forget about these things. If you obtain something, then you have to carry it with you.
Time to use the $5 MP that came with the coupon sheet. It requires a $10 bet. All they have are shuffling machines and shoes. I use a shoe.
Similar Rainman tactics are used for blackjack. Buy in for $100, but now the goal is to either double the money or lose it all. I am not going to turn it into $1,000. That would get me kicked out before I got that high. I use a simple hi/lo count and a 1-6 spread, although when the count is zero, I bet two units, not one. This makes it easier in my mind to get to six units when it’s to my advantage. I’ve never seen anyone do this, nor have I read of it, but I think it helps. At any rate, I lost my $100.
I check the poker room. They only have a $1/$2 No Limit game. No thanks. It’s too early for anything else, I guess. I would make a lot of money playing in these types of games. It’s early in the morning. Everyone is tired. I am not. I just don’t like No Limit cash games. Tournaments are fine. Similarly I don’t like fixed limit tournaments. I think it is important to stick with one or two things, and then if you improve, you can focus on other types of poker.
Trop: -$100 VP, -$100 BJ, -$20 slots. +1 dice clock.
Aladdin is on the way to Caesars, so I drop off the dice clock. It’s a nice day in LV, and walking to Caesars is quite comfortable and easy, and because it is December, I needn’t fear a sunburn.
I find the few remaining 9/6 $1 JOB machines. There are eight, with two 3P/5P machines near them. Sometimes they are all full, which is awful. I find a seat at a single-liner and get 220 of the base credits I need on my $100. I know I am returning for a couple of LVA meets, so I will take care of it then.
I visit the poker room. There is a wait list, and a tournament is starting in 20 minutes, so I decide to do the tournament. It was $80 with a $50 rebuy, which I used. Out of 107 people, I finished 38th. I played well. That’s all you can really hope for. My table never broke, and it had a lot of good players. The dealers were competent and friendly enough. I recommend this poker room.
Caesars: -$100 VP, -$130 poker.
Now it is time to walk to New Frontier. It is about 3:20, so it is about as warm as it will get. The sun sets before 4:30 in Las Vegas in December.
I get my funbook and see the usual assortment of coupons for the restaurants and bingo. I use the match play at a double-deck table and make $130 pretty quick. I cash out and leave a $5 tip. It’s time for FPDW.
New Frontier has a 25-cent FPDW with a progressive on the royal. It’s one of the better percentage plays out there, especially when the progressive is up there. This time it wasn’t ($1040), but so what? It’s still an opportunity to get points at a strip property, closing down that it may be.
I don’t know what strategy to use when playing quarters, because it requires a royal, generally, to turn $100 into $1000. And losing 400 credits can take forever. I generally can only play single-line VP for a couple hours before my attention span starts doing other things, and then I make mistakes. I used to be able to play for eight hours straight. I blame turning 30.
So I get 4 deuces, and 1000 quarters come spilling out. Hmm, okay. I guess I will play off the 400 credits and keep the $250, meaning a $150 profit. And that’s what I did.
The machine ran out of quarters during that 1000-coin auto-spill. So I got a hopper fill. I don’t tip involuntary hopper fills. (If I cash out and empty the hopper, then I do.) I’d appreciate opinions of this. I tip hopper fills when I do it on purpose because I created the work. I don’t understand why I should tip for involuntary ones. I know it’s the same job either way, but I don’t tip for that reason. I tip people for doing something for me that I requested. Otherwise I’d give the cocktail server money when I decline an invitation for a beverage.
I got several natural four of a kinds and three natural straight flushes on this machine. Oh well.
I was hungry. I used the $1 off a rack of ribs and beer coupon at Gilley’s. I generally don’t eat meat, but I figured I would never get another chance to eat at Gilley’s, and as someone who doesn’t really like country music AT ALL, I figured I should try something new and make myself more well-rounded.
So if RAMPER has never been here, he should go. Methinks he’s been here by now, but just in case, get your SoCal ass in there. Having said that, you can imagine how my server was dressed. I wouldn’t say she was dressed to the nines. Maybe the sixty-nines. Fake Southern accent and all, she got me my order. Food was above average (not that ribs are an area of expertise for me), but maybe not worth $19.99. I watched a bunch of country music videos on the screen while I was there. A lot of people lost their jobs, girlfriends and horses.
New Frontier: BJ +$125, VP +$150
It was 9. It was dark. Time to go back to Aladdin. I thought the walk would do me good. But then I saw a Deuce pulling up. (That is what they call the bus on the strip now.) I still hadn’t taken one, and I love mass transit. Fine. I pull $2 out and take that back. The driver must have been an ex-security guard. He kept ordering people around the bus, including telling people not to stand in the stairwell between the decks. (It is a double-decker bus.) Great entertainment. So when someone asked me whether I saw a show and I said no, I lied. I saw the Deuce.
I got back to the Aladdin and lost $120 playing 3-6 and $100 playing bonus poker, and it was time for bed.
Aladdin: VP -$100, poker -$120
12th total: poker -$250, VP -$150, BJ +$25 and other -$20 for a total of -$395. For the trip I was at -$475.
I got up on the 13th, ready to use my POV. I never used my POV in April, so I had some catching up to do. First stop Arizona Charlie’s Boulder.
This place was called Arizona Charlie’s East for years. They’ve changed their name, but many of the machines inside still have the old logo on them. It’s as if they started to rebrand everything in the casino, ran out of money and scrapped the project.
They have Kings or Better Joker’s Wild in quarters there (100.6%). This underrated game provided some enjoyment before my $100 went away. My $5 MP paved the way to a $140 BJ win, less $5 for tipping. I also had the $2.79 ham and eggs special at the Sourdough Café or whatever it’s called. Sorry. I’m a cheap bastard. I am not going to spend more money to not eat meat. It’s not about principal or the animals. It’s about the bottom line. I can spend $7 for an omelet or $3 for ham. I am taking the ham.
Arizona Charlie’s Boulder: VP -$100, BJ +135
There was an outside shot at a 3 p.m. meet at Ellis Island. Nothing had been decided when I left, so I figured I would risk it. Meet or no, egg nog was on my agenda. Granted, the signs all say “holiday nog.” My guess is that there are no eggs in this concoction. Rum must be cheaper than eggs. That’s why farmers don’t get their hens drunk. It is not cost-effective. The roosters must get their action on skill alone with this valuable weapon missing from their arsenal.
I arrived around 20 minutes early and played the 5P NSUD quarter machines. I had a holiday nog and a root beer. The root beer was sort of flat, almost like Kool-Aid. I will try it again some other time, but this time I was not impressed.
I got 4 deuces again. I cashed out $300. It was 3:15, and my guess was that no one was going to show. I had on my jersey with my name so I would be easy to spot, but no harm, no foul. And plus I put about 5,000 points on my card, so maybe I will start getting offers from the neighboring Super 8.
Ellis Island: VP +$200
With this aborted meet behind me, it was back to the POV and Arizona Charlie’s Decatur. They have 5P 10/7 DB in quarters, which is my favorite game in the world to play. I used to play this at the Club Cal-Neva in Reno when I lived in South Lake Tahoe in 1999-2000. A dealt four aces still doesn’t give a W-2G, so you can get a lot of 4OAKs because it’s 5P without worrying about tax issues.
$100 turned into $0 pretty quickly. Oh well. Then I had the POV’s $5 MP. That $100 also disappeared fairly quick. At the table was a leftover Texan from the rodeo, who was betting $100-$200/hand and some woman who believed in every kind of BJ voodoo you could imagine. She, like everyone in Vegas, just wanted to get even. The Texan left, and it was just the two of us vs. the dealer.
She was betting quarters two hands at a time. One of them involved a double down, but it was the third-base hand, and she “created” a situation in which she claimed she stood on 15 vs. an eight before doubling the last hand, but the dealer hit her 18 and busted her with the 10 that would have won the double down. And also the dealer would have busted instead of making a hand that beat her out of both hands. So all this woulda, coulda, shoulda cost her $75. The dealer said she motioned for a hit with her hand, and she said she did not. (I believe this was a double-deck face-up game.) Of course she waited till after the hand was over, so the floor was called, and they called upstairs to the eye in the sky to determine whether she inadvertently had been given another card or whether she legitimately tapped the felt for a card. I of course kept my mouth shut. What’s in it for me? The camera will show what happened, and because it’s not the NFL, they’ll get the call right.
I busted out soon after so I never found out what happened. At least I don’t have to worry about being caught for counting, because I didn’t win! Counting cards is not a guarantee, you know. It only puts the odds in your favor.
I went to the poker room, and the game had JUST broken up. Oh well.
Arizona Charlie’s Decatur: BJ -$100, VP -$100
The next coupon was for Big Dogs. There were three locations that were good, but the nearest one was on Sahara, west of Decatur. I figured, at 5 p.m., how hard could it be to go south on Decatur and make a right onto Sahara? Moron.
The light at Decatur and Sahara is a mess at rush hour. I really don’t see how they can make it any better. It was backed up in all directions, plus you have pedestrians. Stay away from this intersection during rush hour! It took three cycles for me to make my right turn.
Big Dogs has the Gamblers Bonus slot club, which I’d never signed up for before. Halfway through my session, I asked about it, and I should have done so right away. Every full house with 5s or 6s in it that night got 5000 bonus points ($5). Despite playing 6/5 BP for quarters, it’s not as bad when you are getting a bonus for some of your FHs. Of course because I was new I could not cash out my points. Next time. I ended up with more than 20,000 points on my card. The coupon is a $10 bonus for 4OAK, and I fondly remembered the last time I used it in 2003, when I got it on my second hand. Not this time. It took over an hour and cost me $60 to get it. However, the beer there is very good. The food seemed good too. Maybe next time.
I had a great view of the Phoenix Suns game. All in all, a nice place for locals, and if Question 5 goes a certain way, it will be smoke free. By now this may have been decided. I have no idea, and I am not going to check. Insert your own retorts here. I would play here because of the FH bonuses and the good eats.
Big Dogs: VP -$50
Time to head downtown. Binion’s is next, and I’ve never had so little fun winning money before. Please allow me to explain.
First I went to the slot club to get one of their player cards and use my POV coupon for $10 in free play. Turns out it takes 24-72 hours to get put on the card. This was an unsettling surprise. I wish that the POV coupon had said this. Lame. But it would get lamer.
Well, I was already there, so I had to do my obligatory video poker and poker room visits. They have FPDW in quarters, and with it being a double-points day, I figured why not. Well, I got four deuces for the third time this trip. I’d only gotten deuces once in my life before this trip, although I honestly don’t usually play deuces wild games. It spit out most of my thousand quarters and then required a hopper fill, so I waited for that. I had 160 credits left on my machine from my original hundred, and I was tired of playing, so I figured I’d go to the poker room for a bit and then play off the $40 afterward.
They are spreading a 4-8 game, so I buy in for $160 and get ready to sit down. As I am taking the chips out of my tray and setting up, the dealer suddenly looks at me and says I need to take “that” off the table. Whatever is he talking about?
Time for yet another sidebar to this story. When you play poker in a card room, you need to protect your hand. If something happens to your hand and it’s unprotected, it can be called dead, and you lose your hand (the cards, not your actual hand). Most people just use a chip. Greg Raymer is called “Fossilman” because he uses a fossil. Johnny Chan uses an orange. You get the idea. So what?
Well, the dealer keeps motioning at me without saying anything, and then he says, “you can’t have a condom at the table.”
I use a wrapped condom as a card cover. There are so many great lines you can use for this. “I like to protect my hand.” “I like lots of action at the poker table.” You get the idea. I’ve been doing this for years, and despite ripping off most of my material from other people, I am proud to say that I came up with this idea 100%.
I politely asked whether he was kidding, and he flatly said no, so I said fine, I’ll play somewhere else. I am not interested in making a scene. Despite my flowery writing and social skills, I am not compensating for anything and do not explicitly seek undue attention. I can respect a private operation to have its own rules of operating.
So I go back to the brush to cash out, and he says, “that was fast.” I briefly explain (accurately!) what transpired, and he seemed a bit perplexed. He said he thought it was creative and wanted to talk to the floor about it, but she was not there at the moment. I said I would wait for a bit for him to get her, although I really didn’t want to. Undue attention, etc.
The floor arrives, and he accurately restates the situation to her and asks her opinion, and she agreed with the dealer! Makes sense, I suppose. What dealer is going to voluntarily tell someone at a seven-handed table that he can’t do something? A seven-handed table is at risk of breaking up because many people do not like to play short-handed.
To be clear, I was not kicked out. But because I refused to not use a condom as a card protector I was not allowed to play. I could have stayed if I used something else.
The floor gave me a keychain for my trouble, which I found odd. The whole thing was quite cordial, I must say. But I refuse to go to Binion’s again, POV coupon or no. It’s an easy choice to make, given the competition out there.
Needless to say, I didn’t play the last $40 at FPDW.
Binion’s: VP +$190
I drove back to Aladdin around 10 p.m. and did the usual video poker/poker combo to “earn my keep.” I lost the $100 pretty quick at VP, and things weren’t looking good at the 2-4 game, either. Why isn’t there a 3-6 game? Well, they started one, and I moved. The game wasn’t full for long, though, and it got short-handed, and this one guy was a maniac, and after two hours of playing virtually nothing because of crap cards, I was able to take advantage of this tight image when I got a run of cards at a four-handed table. I made $103 before realizing I could barely stay awake. It was a great opportunity to make more money, but I knew I could easily give a lot back because of my tired state.
Aladdin: VP -$100, poker +$103
13th total: poker +$103, VP +$40, BJ +$35 for a total of +$178. For the trip I was -$297.
The 14th turned out to be a fun social day. I started with a drive to Boulder Station. I used some accrued points to have the Feast Buffet for breakfast. I love Stations. I can play an hour of dollar positive VP (900 hands, or 2250 points) and eat their buffet for free ($4.99, or 3000 points, but it is 25% off if you are gold, which I think involves leaving just 500 points on your card). I think just being gold gives you that 25% discount, even if you pay cash. After molesting their omelet station, I was good to go.
I used their 3X points coupon to play $1 10/6 DDB. It didn’t last long, but it was the attempt that was brave. My results sure looked as if I were in the Special Olympics, anyway. I would have had better results if I had wildly flailed at the buttons, I am sure. (And for the record I covered Special Olympics for high school yearbook and my best friend as a child had cerebral palsy, so although that doesn’t make it OK to mock the disabled, it *does* make it funnier.)
I went to the poker room and sat in on a 4-8 game. Boulder Station is one of the last smoking poker rooms in LV, although I was at a nonsmoking table. I had nothing but hot cards for the first 20 minutes. Talk about a way to build your table image. I felt sort of bad, because the table was full of sheriffs wanting to call down this arrogant brash kid, except I was polite and actually had the hands I was representing! It was a shame to leave after two hours up $57, but I had to go to an LVA meet.
An aside about the poker room here. I told them the story of Binion’s and the condom, and the dealer said, “Binion’s will do anything to drive business away.”
Boulder Station: VP -$100, poker +$57
I took Boulder Highway to Tropicana to get to Orleans. I’d never been before, but the following day I would be there again to check in, so it was nice to get a good look at the place. Brendan’s was closed, so we went to some bar to hang out. There were eight of us. I really think that this is the ideal number for a meet. In many ways this was my favorite meet because we could all sit together.
I generally won’t even try with names. There was a fellow Bay Area native that was there who was a lot of fun. He will also be there when I am next month for business, so hopefully we will be able to get together, although it’s hard to tell at this point. I’ve never gone to Vegas on business before, so I don’t know what to make of it all.
I also met Catherine (bigfus), who has similar goals as me in the gambling department. She also takes mass transit everywhere in LV, for which I have tremendous respect. I take mass transit all the time at home, but in LV, I tend to drive.
Everyone at the meet was a lot of fun, and I apologize for not remembering the names. I honestly don’t even try anymore because I just forget them anyway (plus I hate misspelling names, and when I only hear and never see the names, it becomes to easy to do this). That’s enough disclaimers for today.
After the meet, some of us tried our luck at the 3P nickel progressive. They had 9/7 DB, and after the recent gutting of their VP, this was about as good as it was going to get. One of the royals was over $600, and considering nickel royals are $200 without a progressive, this was amazing. None of us hit it, but we did help get it over $700. One of the smaller royals hit, which was nice.
My $100 lasted five hours. 3P is exciting enough that I can play it for that long, but even after five hours, I was really fried. Catherine stuck around, and I offered her a ride back to Main Street Station, where she was staying. Coin-in is coin-in (except at Coast casinos, which uses a coin-out system), so I figured I could play anywhere. Besides MSS does send good offers out, I have heard.
Orleans: VP -$100
We stopped at Gold Coast on the way to use a 2-for-1 buffet coupon. It was much better than my last experience there (see April trip report). I raided the Mongolian grill and desserts. It’s what I do. If my pants fit, I need to eat more.
So off we were to MSS. With the FPDW gone, I decided to play some 10/7 DB. These machines had the double up feature. I like it. The hell with you. I know everyone hates it. I like it. Double up? You bet.
I lost $50 in eight minutes. I still like double up. Then someone tells me about More for 4. This promotion gives you a scratch card for every hand four of a kind and higher. Well, if I don’t play double up, then I can get more scratch cards because I am not wasting time playing Card Sharks.
I lose the other $50. Normally I’d leave, but I am here hanging out with Catherine, so I don’t want to just leave. I figure okay I will just play another $100. It’s quarters. How bad can it hurt?
I get a straight flush and a 4OAK. Both scratch cards are $2. I manage to get the second $100 back to $100 again and decide my original $100 loss is sufficient, but at least now I have 1000 points on the card. I go back to Aladdin. It’s the last night before I have to check out.
MSS: VP -$100
By now it is after 2 a.m. I sit at a 2-4 table because that is all they have. Stupid Aladdin. Why can’t they keep a 3-6 game open? Well, after nearly four hours of playing, I have made $4 and decide to go to bed. Wait, I forgot to blow $100 playing VP. OK, done.
Aladdin: VP -$100, poker +$4
14th: poker +$61, VP -$400 for a total of -$339. For the trip I am -$636.
I call for a late checkout and get a whole hour. I actually use an alarm and set it for 11. (I never use alarms, even at home. I love flextime.)
I get up on the 15th, load up the car and check out. One last shot at VP and the poker room, and I am down with the Aladdin a la Dean (Martin).
The poker room is full, so I get on the list and head to the VP. My $100 on t