Today's featured shit

If you would like to see the 2006 version, it is here: https://joelshitshow.com/2006/12/24/for-nfl-fans/

I don’t know why I did not post the 2007 version. Here is the 2008 version. If you want to write the author, you can do it at elgart30@gmail.com. Playoff scenarios will be posted around Christmastime. He will likely write it in a week (although we’ll be in Vegas, so how does that work?), and I’ll post it when I have Internet access again, Christmas Eve at my grandparents in Napa.

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Greetings from Tucson, Arizona, where the NFL Answer Man’s busy
schedule has taken him today. We had Mrs. Answer Man’s birthday on
Sunday, the Christmas dinner from my day job yesterday, and today I’m
in Tucson to meet with clients who aren’t showing up because it’s the
holidays — who wants to meet with a bankruptcy lawyer right before
Christmas? (After New Year’s is a whole different story.) Luckily
there was Monday, with a free evening and the Eagles-Browns game not
distracting me at all, so I was able to work out my playoff charts,
and now I can cobble together these questions and answers for an
eagerly awaiting public:

Q: Did you manage to get all your charts done?

A: Pretty much. I haven’t done a complete analysis of every
strength-of-victory tiebreaker. I do know that Dallas has a big edge
over Chicago and Philadelphia has a big edge over Tampa Bay. That’s
right, I calculated the Philadelphia-Tampa Bay tiebreaker, just in
case the Eagles win out while the Bucs win one and tie one. However,
I refused on principle to calculate who gets the third seed if the
Bears win the North Division at 9-6-1 and the Cardinals, by
coincidence, also happen to finish 9-6-1. There’s a (?) right there
on my chart and it’s staying there.

Q: Well, what most of America wants to know is: how do we keep the
Patriots out of the playoffs?

A: Just win, baby. The Patriots lose all tiebreakers at 11-5. So If
the Jets and Dolphins win this week, then the winner of their Dec. 28
game wins the division; the Patriots can sneak in only if that Dec. 28
game is a tie. If the Ravens win twice and the Colts win once —
either this week or next — then the Patriots can’t win the wild card
either.

Q: What if someone finishes 10-6? Can the Patriots win any of those
tiebreakers?

A: Against the Jets, the tiebreaker comes down to division record.
The Jets prevail unless their one loss is to the Dolphins and the
Patriots’ one win is against the Bills. Then the Patriots win the
next tiebreaker, record against common opponents. Against the
Dolphins, the Patriots prevail only if their one win is against the
Bills and the Dolphins’ one loss is to the Jets. The Patriots lose
subsequent tiebreakers to the Dolphins if they finish with the same
division record. Against the Ravens, the Patriots’ only slim hope is
if their one win is against the Bills and the Ravens’ one loss is to
the Jaguars. Then it comes down to a strength-of-victory tiebreaker
in which the Ravens hold an early lead.

Q: I understand the winner of this Sunday’s Giants-Panthers game gets
first seed in the NFC. Does the losing team get second seed?

A: Not necessarily. If the losing team winds up winning its division
at 11-5, and the Vikings win out, then the Vikings will get second
seed and the Giants or Panthers will be third. For that matter, the
Panthers miss the playoffs altogether if they lose twice while the
Bucs, Falcons, and Cowboys all win twice.

Q: Is it the same deal with this Sunday’s Steelers-Titans game?

A: Not exactly. The Titans will earn first seed with a win. If the
Steelers win, the Titans can still reclaim first seed by winning next
week while the Steelers lose. However, these teams have both clinched
bye weeks already.

Q: Who wins the NFC South if everyone goes 11-5?

A: Not the Panthers. You’re not going to like this, but the
Bucs-Falcons tiebreaker at 11-5 comes down to strength of victory, and
they’ve beaten almost all the same teams. It’ll depend solely on
whether the Seahawks finish with a better record than the Rams. If
they do, then Tampa Bay wins the division and gets a bye week and
Atlanta is a wild card. If the Seahawks and Rams finish with the same
record, then the tiebreaker comes down to strength of schedule, and
being in the same division, Atlanta and Tampa Bay had almost the same
schedule. It’ll depend solely on whether Dallas or Philadelphia
finishes with a better record. Tampa Bay is rooting for Dallas and
Atlanta is rooting for Philadelphia.

Q: Wait, you missed one. What if the Rams finish with a better record
than the Seahawks? They’re only one game behind now.

A: In this scenario, they can’t. We’re assuming the Falcons win twice
to finish 11-5, and the Falcons’ last game is against the Rams.

Q: Also, what if Dallas and Philadelphia finish with the same record?

A: That would involve Dallas tying Baltimore then losing to the
Eagles. Or it would involve the Eagles tying both of their remaining
games to finish 8-5-3. Do my charts cover the possibility of a team
finishing 8-5-3? Yes, they do. If the Eagles finish 8-5-3 and the
Cowboys finish 9-6-1, that’s considered the same record and the
Atlanta-Tampa Bay division race goes to the immortal Tiebreaker #7,
“Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and
points allowed.” (The Eagles-Cowboys tiebreaker at those records, by
the way, goes to the Cowboys.)

Q: How come the Redskins can make the playoffs at 7-7, but the Saints
and Texans can’t?

A: It’s the familiar principle that before you can earn a wild card,
you at least have to be the best contender in your own division. If
everything goes right for the Redskins (they win twice, Tampa Bay and
Atlanta lose twice, and Baltimore beats Dallas), then someone in their
division will finish higher than 9-7 and be fifth seed but the
Redskins will be sixth seed due to a higher conference record than
Atlanta. Why do we only care about Atlanta when Tampa Bay and New
Orleans can also finish 9-7? Because the Falcons are the only team
that can get out of the NFC South with a 9-7 record; in this scenario
they would have the best record against common opponents. That
explains why the Saints are eliminated too. Meanwhile, in the AFC,
the Texans’ best chance is to finish in a tie for sixth seed at 9-7,
but they lose the tiebreaker to Baltimore in all possible scenarios.

Q: And is it true the Chargers can still make the playoffs at 6-8?

A: Absolutely. If they win this week while the Broncos lose, then
their Dec. 28 rematch is a virtual playoff game: winner gets fourth
seed and loser goes home.

Q: Would they be in better shape if Ed Hochuli hadn’t screwed them in
their first game with the Broncos?

A: Well, of course they would. Mr. Hochuli, my colleague before the
Arizona bar, has had better days in the NFL than when his errant call
of an incomplete pass on a Jay Cutler fumble cost the Chargers a
victory. I should mention that the Chargers, to that point, had
already given up 31 points and let the Broncos’ last-minute touchdown
drive reach the 1-yard line, so they can’t lay all the blame on my
esteemed brother in jurisprudence. All the same, had they won that
game, they would now be tied with the Broncos at 7-7, and would hold a
5-0 division record, so a win in either of their remaining games, or
any Broncos loss, would lock up the division for the Chargers. That’s
much better shape.

Q: How do I stop receiving this drivel?

A: You’re receiving this because you received it last year. If you
know someone who’d like to see it, pass it on. If you hate it — no,
I can’t imagine a world where you’d hate it. If you have follow-up
questions, get back to me.

Q: Did any of your clients ever show up?

A: Yeah, a few. I like these road trips to Tucson, but not during
football chart season. I need to drive home now, so I’ll leave you to
enjoy this weekend’s games, and I’ll be back with you next week