Archive for March 2009

Fantasy Baseball Strategy Guide and News for 21 March 2009 (Issue 2)

March 21, 2009

He’ll Be Fine

Jason Marquis was doing some testing with where on the rubber he stands, resulting in his bad start.
Adam Wainwright’s finger surgery is completely behind him.
Oliver Perez’s fatigue will go away. He pitched in the World Baseball Classic, but this is overrated as a problem.
Derrek Lee is taking batting practice.
Rich Harden ate a bad burrito. So did Justin Morneau. And Orlando Cabrera.
Hanley Ramirez has right shoulder tendinitis.
Brad Lidge had forearm tightness.
Chan Ho Park has hamstring issues.
Gaby Sanchez has a lower-leg contusion.
Jerry Hairston ate a bad burrito but is merely a speed option in NL-only leagues anyway.
Pedro Feliz has a bad back and should only be used in NL-only leagues. Same with Brandon Moss, who sprained his right thumb.
Chase Utley had hip surgery.
Placido Polanco was hit by a pitch.

Name Recognition Means Nothing

Frank Catalanotto is worth a buck in AL-only leagues, but that’s it. He’s going to be pinch hitting mostly.
Carl Pavano hasn’t been the same since signing that huge contract and getting injured.
Jose Contreras is doing well after Achilles problems, but he’s not fantasy-ready.
What does Barry Zito’s name even mean anymore?
Jason Varitek will lose a lot of starts to Josh Bard.
Michael Barrett and Rod Barajas may be splitting time 50/50.
Danys Baez isn’t a closer anymore and recovering from Tommy John surgery to boot.
Laynce Nix will not be starting if he even makes the team.
Chipper Jones hurt his oblique and will hurt something else soon enough.
Brian Schneider is a No. 2 catcher in NL-only leagues.
Ivan Rodriguez should not be starting for you. He’s just not that good anymore.
Livan Hernandez will be a fifth starter.
Akinori Iwamura is not going to hit at the top of the order despite his good showing in the World Baseball Classic.

Sleepers for Keeper Leagues

Brett Anderson (P) won’t make the club, but if your league lets you draft guys in spring training, nab him. Same with Tommy Manzella (2B/SS).
Glen Perkins (P) is a good pickup in the late rounds in AL-only leagues. Same with Phil Hughes, especially if you can keep minor leaguers.
Josh Anderson (OF) is winning the job in Florida, making him good in NL-only leagues. He is a SB threat.
Rick Porcello (P) might start but should only be taken in AL-only leagues.
Jeff Karstens (P) and Virgil Vazquez (P) are fighting for Tom Gorzelanny’s (P) old spot. He was sent down.

Starting Job in Jeopardy

Kevin Correia isn’t really a difference maker anyway, so the risk becomes completely unnecessary. Ditto for Seth McClung.
Justin Duchsherer will start the season in the pen but will work his way back into the rotation. Let someone else draft him, and then trade for him when his owner is upset that he isn’t starting.
Collen Ballester may not make the rotation. He’s worth a dollar in NL-only leagues.
Andrew Miller will be lucky to be a fifth starter. It looks bleaker for Greg Smith.

Major-leaguer starter doesn’t mean fantasy-league starter

Clay Buchholz will likely end up a fifth starter. Same with Franklin Morales.
Matt Garza needs to prove himself and will be drafted higher than where he’ll be a good value.
Nate Robertson is only worth a dollar in NL-only leagues. Same with Russ Ortiz.
Johnny Cueto is only worth it in 5×5 NL-only leagues.
Jeremy Bonderman should only be taken at the end of drafts. Someone else will take him by then. Try to trade for him if he has a slow start.

Injured Starters

J.D. Drew is surprisingly hurt, now with a bad hand to go with his bad back.
Mark Worrell is having Tommy John surgery and will be out for the year.
Fausto Carmona was hit with a line drive.
Kelvim Escobar will be back in May.

Closer Alert

Eddie Guardado is looking more like a middle reliever.
C.J. Wilson will be the setup guy. Same with Dan Wheeler.
That means Troy Percival is closing.
Jonathan Papelbon is not hurt.
Joey Devine is looking like the guy.

Other Stuff

Mike Redmond will start until Joe Mauer is back, whenever that is. Try to trade him when Mauer starts his rehab assignment or if he gets off to a fast start.
Jorge Posada is batting leadoff because Derek Jeter is at the World Baseball Classic.

Episode 973 is up

March 21, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Strategy Guide and News for 20 March 2009 (Issue 1)

March 20, 2009

Starting Pitching

Noah Lowry will be back in May. Only pick him up for a dollar in auction leagues. He needs an injury to see regular starts.
Jeremy Bonderman looks good so far.
Josh Outman is a good late-round pickup in keeper leagues, especially if your league lets you disable minor leaguers.
This means don’t draft Edgar Gonzalez.
Casey Janssen is hurt and competing for a spot. Don’t draft him.
Kris Benson is a fifth starter at best.
John Lannan is the Opening Day starter. Really. This means he’ll be matched up against a lot of good pitchers this season, so even though he will give you a good WHIP, don’t expect more than 12 wins.
Franklin Morales should make the rotation, but he will wreck your WHIP.
Clayton Kershaw is trying to strike less guys out this year. That means better WHIP and ERA and more IP, but less K’s.
Aaron Laffey will be starting, but Cleveland’s got a thin rotation behind Cliff Lee. Avoid him.
Aaron Heilman is just a fifth starter.
Cole Hamels will be fine.
Should he sign somewhere, stay away from Pedro Martinez.
And stay away from Wandy Rodriguez.
Chris Volstad is a sneaky pickup.
Kenshin Kawakami is hurt.

Closers

Francisco Cordero has looked terrible this spring, but who else in Cincinnati is going to close?
Neal Cotts is a good guy to stash on your roster, because Carlos Marmol has not yet proved he can close regularly without melting down.
Stay away from Trevor Hoffman.
Matt Lindstrom will be fine.
Jason Motte has been amazing.
This means stay away from Ryan Franklin.

Catcher

Matt Wieters won’t be the starter right away, but he is too good to ignore, especially in keeper leagues.
Brian Schneider will be fine.

First Base

Chris Shelton is at it again. Don’t fall for his antics. Pick him up for a dollar in auction leagues and try to trade him if he gets off to a fast start.
Look for Micah Hoffpauir to be traded. He’s got power but is stuck behind Derrek Lee, who has a sore quad but will be fine. Hoffpauir’s a bit old, so consider his strong spring an audition for another team (and a bit of a fluke).
Paul Konerko is back.
Expect Gaby Sanchez and Dallas McPherson to platoon.

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia will be fine.
Luis Castillo will not bat leadoff when the regular season starts.

Third Base

Evan Longoria is replacing Chipper Jones in the World Baseball Classic. Try to avoid this guy. High-profile guys tend to be drafted early, and a sophomore jinx could be in order.
Do not expect Scott Moore to start, despite a strong spring.
Geoff Blum will be fine.

Shortstop

If you have no Red Sox fans in your league, try to pick up Jed Lowrie in the middle rounds.
That means: Don’t draft Julio Lugo.
Hanley Ramirez will be fine.
Miguel Tejada won’t go to jail.
Jose Reyes is batting leadoff again.

Outfield

Jason Lane appears to be the starter because of a strong spring, but he’s a streaky hitter. You can pick him up for a dollar in auction leagues for the purpose of trading him if he gets off to a fast start.
That means Adam Lind is in trouble. Leave him alone.
Jeff Francoeur is worth a shot at the end of the draft. His arm keeps him in the lineup when his hitting stops, so if he gets off to a fast start, you might be able to trade him.
Wladimir Balentien will make the roster but is not expected to start. He is worth a dollar in keeper leagues and can be traded if he gets off to a fast start.
Stay away from Carlos Quentin and Pat Burrell. If you have them, try to trade them.
Stay away from Geoff Jenkins and Matt Stairs unless they are traded.
Brett Gardner is the starter, and Melky Cabrera is the backup. But if the Yankees trade for Mike Cameron then everything changes.
Starting OF in Texas appears to be Josh Hamilton, David Murphy and Nelson Cruz.
That means Marlon Byrd is worth a dollar in AL-only leagues, but that’s it. And it also means to stay away from Andruw Jones. Julio Borbon will be a stud, but not yet. Keep an eye on him in keeper leagues.
Michael Bourn will get you stolen bases this spring, but when the Astros get off to a slow start — they are terrible this year — he will be benched or cut.
Josh Willingham may not start this year. The outfield is shaping up to be Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge.

Episode 972 is up

March 20, 2009

Building a portfolio

March 19, 2009

I’ve added a fantasy baseball category to the site. The goal is to write a daily analysis, starting April 1st (so I can change my mind in the interim and say “April Fool!”), so you can win your fantasy league. Why do something that everyone else is already doing? Because mine won’t suck. Also, I need a portfolio that shows I can write because a lot of the jobs I am shooting for involve writing, and I only have provable experience reviewing albums and interviewing bands. Nobody knows of my ability to write 3,000-word pieces about a Division II college volleyball team.

Twitter

March 19, 2009

I signed up for Twitter yesterday. KSCU created an account and sent me a message on Facebook (think about that for a minute) to let me know, so I figured I would sign up too, finally. (You don’t need an account to follow someone on Twitter, but I am always looking for an excuse to do something I don’t want to do that I likely should, especially if it is for my career.)

Twitter works for different reasons than Facebook or the other social networks (Merchant Circle, LinkedIn etc.). I don’t understand why people haven’t figured this out, considering that we love, as a society, to be so judgmental. Twitter works because it places the focus squarely on the tweeter and leaves it there.

Facebook has two or three years left in it. It has a major flaw. When people judge you, they can judge you in person. Every post on Facebook lets others comment right below it, for all to see. This is its strongest selling point and a key reason for its success. (Granted, you used to not be able to comment on everything, but the latest, er, facelift to the site now enables this.) But there is a problem with this: People are ridiculously sensitive, especially on the Internet, the most insensitive place in the world.

Enter Twitter. Twitter lets you say whatever you want, but nobody is ever going to see it, and therefore no one is ever going to judge you. Do you really think people give their opinion because others will care? Of course not. People are merely interested in hearing/reading themselves. It’s no different than taking a dump and admiring your handiwork before flushing it away. “Twitter” does rhyme with “shitter,” after all.

All of this assumes default settings, of course. If I don’t want to hear the status of someone who is a mutual friend at best — you know, the ones you add because your friends add them, and you don’t want to deal with the politics of Facebook friends — I can turn down their posts in my settings so they show up less often, or even not at all. But who does that? The most important aspect of any user interface design is the popularity of the default settings, because 95% of people are going to use them. Homer Simpson was right.

The default settings on Twitter are pretty straightforward. You sign up, decide to add people, which is easy because it can search your e-mail address book, and you’re done.

So now what?

Well, you can either log on to the site to read everyone’s tweets or you can have them sent to your phone. Because of the stereotypes of people tweeting everything they do, I feel as if I could rent my phone to a woman whose sex toy had run out of batteries. I hate the phone. Facebook updates are OK, because I can control that easily. (Again, fear of the unknown is why people don’t want to manually control these things. I got over it for Facebook, but most users will not.)

Having people sign up on your Web site, only to have them never return is why a lot of sites fail. I have no desire to go back to Twitter. I already went there. I’ll come back later, but as Bil Keane pointed out, later may never happen.

Perhaps there is a way to get daily updates of everyone’s tweets in a single e-mail, but I doubt it. I mean, doesn’t that defeat the purpose? The purpose of Twitter is that it is live and in your face. It’s what you’re doing right now. Who cares about what you did yesterday? Case in point: the lousy numbers I get on YouTube. People treat it like it’s yesterday’s news.

However, it’s not all bad news. The path to Twitter’s success does not lead to everyone being engaged in what everyone else is doing. That’s Facebook’s job. And it works, incidentally, on Facebook because you get inspiration to write. Whether it’s 25 things about you or a bucket list, there is always something to write a note about, and then there’s the commenting. Commenting on Facebook makes sense because everyone is looking. “Hey, look at me!” you shout. Facebook is a destination. Twitter is an unlocked diary that no one reads. It lets people write blog posts that can’t be longer than 100-odd characters. Who needs inspiration?

Gary Radnich doesn’t realize it, but he has summed up what no one will admit about the content on Twitter: Nobody cares!

Joel’s Hit Show, Episode 13, 18 March 2009 Playlist

March 18, 2009

Asobi Seksu, Me & Mary
Blake Babies, Temptation Eyes
Black Box Recorder, Child Psychology
Mirah, Generosity
Blonde Redhead, Mother
April March, Try to Cry
Morrissey, When Last I Spoke to Carol
The Apples in Stereo, Signal in the Sky
Aroah, We Can’t Be Friends
Anavan, The Perfect Sound
Astropuppees, Underdog
Azure Ray, How You Remember
March Into Paris, Along for the Ride
Bagheera, Twelves
Bangs, Dirty Knives
Yeah Yeah Yeahs, Zero
Babes in Toyland, Sometimes
Bang! Bang! Eche!, 4 to the Floor
tUnE-yArDs, Sunlight
Adele, Chasing Pavements
A Girl Called Eddy, Tears All Over Town
The Bran Flakes, Stumble Out of Bed
Lily Allen, Smile
All Girl Summer Fun Band, Oh No
Bosque Brown, Train Song
The Aislers Set, Emotional Levy
Dot Allison, Tomorrow Never Comes
Gretchen Phillips, Swimming
The Amps, Tipp City
An April March, We Were Never Attached
Cock and Swan, Remember Sweet
Grey Anne, Adelaide
Laurie Anderson, The End of the World
Shawn Lee feat. Nicole Willis, Jigsaw
Anna Oxygen, Aviva
The Anniversary, Sweet Marie
Handsome Furs, Officer of Hearts
Maya Angelou, Run Joe
Anjulie, Boom
Cotton Jones, Gone the Bells
Ani DiFranco, Hello Birmingham
Wire Daisies, Rocket Girl
Julie Plug, Devoted
Rilo Kiley, Plane Crash in C
Marianne Pillsbury, Layaway Girlfriend
Dance Hall Crashers, Babushska
The Rocking Horse Winner, Miss You

Episode 971 is up

March 18, 2009

Episode 970 is up

March 17, 2009

Episode 969 is up

March 16, 2009