Today's featured shit

Spending some time in the race and sports books this weekend has taught me that fantasy baseball is completely unrelated to baseball handicapping. Either that or it’s just really unlucky to go 1-6 in one-run games.
Baseball handicapping is actually more about the other bettors than it is about the actual players. Players get hurt all the time. Upsets occur. You can easily put too much emphasis on stats. Of course, you should put some on them, but just to help pick a side. The real effort is in pounding the pavement (or the Internet for those of you scoring at home, literally).
After you’ve picked the teams you want to bet, you have to find the posted lines of as many books as possible so you can make some comparisons. Obviously, you’re looking for the best available odds. And sometimes you can get an overlay. It almost happened with the Dodgers and Angels yesterday. I found the Angels at -135 at one book and the Dodgers at +135 across the street. That was as close as it got, though, because a ton of money came in on the Angels, and they moved to -144. But these scenarios do occur. Books want to stay balanced, so even if it creates an overlay opportunity for you, they don’t care. They’re just happy that you’re there to help them balance their books.
I had the Angels last night, in fact. John Lackey is a good fantasy pitcher and a good real-life pitcher. He didn’t look so hot last night, but I haven’t given up on him yet. Same story with Paul Maholm. The Rockies are just a hot team right now. He’ll be fine.
Interleague play is supposed to favor the pitcher, because a lot of the matchups are happening for the first time, but Freddy Sanchez has been having a grand old time of it so far. He’s available in a surprising number of leagues. And if he isn’t, Yuniesky Betancourt might have broken out of a slump with his three-hit game yesterday. You could do worse in the middle infield.
Another three-hit guy from yesterday was Josh Bard. If catching is scarce in your league, you might want to give this guy a look. Brian Schneider, the guy Bard replaced, in essence, hit a home run yesterday and is another desperate catcher. (A desperate catcher is someone you add to your team because you’re desperate for a catcher. He should be better than the rest of the crap out there, but you still wouldn’t need him unless you didn’t draft well at the position.)

Kevin Correia is proving that any pitcher that throws for the San Diego Padres is worth considering. Similarly, Tim Wakefield is good if all you need is wins. I keep telling you, and he keeps winning.
Glen Perkins got off to a great start this year, and then suddenly he was no longer Scottish. Lo and behold, he was injured and was placed on the DL. If he truly is better, and last night’s start is an indication of this, then you should consider bringing him back too.
I like to call this one the Otis Nixon Watch. It’s what happens when you’re desperate for stolen bases, so you add someone who sucks out loud, just because he steals bases. With that out of the way, today’s Otis Nixon is Nyjer Morgan. And here is a bonus one: Emilio Bonifacio.
Skip Schumaker may be at the beginning of another hot streak. You could do worse.
When the Houston Astros signed Ivan Rodriguez, it smacked of desperation. And you know what? They were desperate. But somehow it has worked out. If you need a catcher, take a look.
I warned you about Wandy Rodriguez. Then I admitted I was wrong. Perhaps I was right all along. Don’t give up on him yet, but maybe, just maybe, I was right. Maybe.
Maybe there should be a Chris Young contest. They both are right on the fringe right now. If you could get the hitting and pitching stats from one roster spot because they are both named Chris Young, then it might be worth it. Of course, doing so would actually make your rate stats worse, so perhaps it’s for the best.
Shairon Martis was due for a fall. Everyone around him was losing, and it was causing people to sing “one of these things is not like the other.” Like good ol’ Wandy, you can give him another chance, but don’t expect too much.

Don’t give up yet on J.J. Hardy. He’s been dropped to eighth in the order, but when he starts to hit again, that will change. Just think: In the meantime an 0-for-3 hurts you less than an 0-for-4 would.
Jose Contreras is either lucky or good. I have Ervin Santana in a league, so I need to give someone a shot. Maybe this will be the guy. If I were insane I would consider Russ Ortiz. Maybe you’re insane!
I’d dropped Adrian Beltre earlier this year. Luckily, he is still available in that league, because now I can snap him back up. He wasn’t that bad, and he isn’t this good, but there’s no way to know when he’s going to stop producing again. If I could sign for his UPS packages, I bet I’d have better insight of this.
You know who’s having a sneaky-good year this season? Jeremy Hermida.

Scott Baker has a 1.12 WHIP and an ERA over 5. It is a lot harder to fake a good WHIP. He should finish the year with an ERA under 4, and if you add him now, that means you’re only going to get the good stats he accumulates the rest of the way. Another guy to look at is Brian Bannister, although you can’t expect as much out of him. If you want to expect even less, there’s Braden Looper.
J.P. Howell is now closing in Tampa Bay.
Today’s unknown catcher is Kurt Suzuki, although if I keep mentioning him perhaps he will no longer be unknown. His average has dropped about 60 points to .271, but while he was not good enough to hit .330, he is not bad enough to hit .271 either.

Miguel Olivo won’t hit like this forever, but you could do worse if you’re struggling to find a catcher.
That’s it. Not a lot of surprises or breaking news of relevance yesterday.

Don’t give up on John Lackey just yet. Same story with Rick Ankiel, who may have turned things around with three extra-base hits yesterday.
I am ending the Todd Helton experiment. That was fun while it lasted. Now it’s time to get the same results with Adam LaRoche.
John Smoltz is worth taking a flier on. It’s not clear how much he will start, but he will start. If he does well, then you can imagine the Red Sox will find a place for him every five days.

Carlos Gonzalez can hit a little bit. It remains to be seen whether he is a flash in the pan, but you might as well enjoy him while you can.
David Ortiz has been pretty unlucky this year, and in some leagues his original owners have lost faith in him. As he has shown this week, it may be time to give him another chance. With interleague play coming up this weekend, he may have to pinch hit, but my hunch is that Mike Lowell will sit on Sunday, so that’s one start right there. In addition Kevin Youkilis has been hurt recently, so he should get two out of three starts.
To a lesser degree, the same is true about James Shields. He may be 5-5, but he is much better than that. He could win 15 this season. I just picked him up in a league. Is he available in yours?
Yunel Escobar has been consistent this year and can give you help at shortstop, a place many of us need help at.
Dave Bush continues to be maligned, now physically after that line drive that got him in the knee, but he has a 1.22 WHIP and is better than people think. He could surprise his next time out.

Don’t give up on Kenshin Kawakami yet. He’ll never be an anchor, but you should be able to get some innings out of him. A higher risk/reward guy is Sean West. You can also consider Jason Marquis. Imagine how bad the Colorado Rockies would be if they didn’t have him.
Remember Gabe Kapler? He hit a home run yesterday. If he gets some more starts in Tampa Bay, then he is worth a look.
Chris Iannetta is coming off the DL, and he’s another one of those low average, high power catchers. In a lot of leagues his owners gave up on him when he got hurt, so check and see if you’re into that sort of thing.

It’s time to give up on Rafael Furcal. Maybe you can get Clint Barmes to replace him.
Today’s young hotshot starting pitcher is Antonio Bastardo. More than a clever name, he’s especially nice in keeper leagues or if you need wins. And of course there is Vin Mazzaro. Be careful, though. He beat the Orioles, a poor hitting and aggressive swinging team. The walks will come back, and against a real offense, he could get lit up. Ubaldo Jimenez is another young guy that you may not have heard of. He’ll get you strikeouts without hurting your WHIP too much.
Randy Wells is a good all-around young talent. In leagues that have specific slots for starters and relievers, he can give you multiposition eligibility too. Don’t be scared off by Tommy Hanson. As long as he keeps the ball down, he’ll be alright. Despite leading his team with six wins, a lot of leagues have left Joe Saunders on the waiver wire. Check and see whether he is there.
It was always a big question whether Carlos Ruiz could hit. It’s June now, and he’s still hitting over .300. Maybe he can. Another name is Jamie Burke. The Mariners have lost two catchers already, and now Burke is going to get some starts.
Juan Rivera is quietly having a good season. Shh.

Trevor Cahill may mimic the wave the Oakland A’s are likely to get on. You could conceivably get another six to eight wins out of him if you keep him on your roster the rest of the year.
It was nice of Geovany Soto to hit a home run yesterday, but I’m giving up on him. It’s a decision I should have made weeks ago, but I really didn’t expect him to be the next Damon Berryhill.
You never know who is available in your league if you don’t look. I just added Jon Lester. Obviously I won’t get his stats from yesterday’s start, but he should get me some good numbers the rest of the year. And his wins for being on a good team makes it easier for me to pick up someone like Jarrod Washburn.
Kelvim Escobar is back. He’s yet another starting pitcher you should take a long look at if you need one. So is Nick Blackburn. And Jeremy Sowers.
Mike MacDougal is the closer in Washington.