Today's featured shit

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

2006 Viewers’ Guide

and 19th Annual Playoff Charts

All Times Eastern

when the league could cherry-pick a game to conclude the season on Sunday night, this was the one

game most appropriate to be chosen, the one game most likely to have wide-ranging playoff

implications. And it was the one game the league was contractually prohibited from choosing, because

it was scheduled for Saturday. Perhaps this is karmic retribution for putting this game on the NFL

Network and preventing most of America from seeing it.

In any case, the Giants essentially control their own destiny. If they win, they are so close to

making the playoffs, they might as well celebrate. The only way they miss the playoffs with a win is if

the Packers win tomorrow night and beat the Giants in a strength-of-victory tiebreaker. That tiebreaker

would see the Giants with 52 wins, plus the results of Dallas, Tampa Bay, Houston, and Carolina, and

the Packers with 46 wins, plus the results of Miami, Arizona, and San Francisco and double the results

of Detroit and Minnesota (the Packers beat each of them twice). And note that Detroit plays Dallas this

week, so that game essentially counts three times. If Dallas wins or ties, the Packers cannot win this

tiebreaker. If Dallas loses but so does Minnesota, the Packers can’t win either. Even if almost

everything goes right, and the Packers push this tiebreaker and go to overall strength of schedule, the

Packers there would need a whole lot more to go right: wins by all the AFC East teams and losses by

all the AFC South teams would help. So you see they have almost no chance and the Giants can pretty

much celebrate.

One thing that’s clear and simple is that a Giants victory eliminates the Panthers, Falcons, and

Rams all at once. Another thing that’s clear, though more complicated, is that a loss doesn’t eliminate

the Giants, but comes so close that they might as well pack. If the Giants lose and finish 7-9, in their

best-case scenario everyone else loses and they finish in a six-way tie (or optionally a seven-way tie if

the Niners win). The survivor of this scenario – which seems far-fetched but only requires all the home

teams except St. Louis to win – is the Giants.

NBC is rooting hard for a Redskins victory because it’s the best way to assure the network of an

audience for the Sunday night game.

have clinched a bye week and have nothing to gain today. They earned the America’s Team title like a

Stadium and on national television. And that game is why the Saints have clinched a bye week. If

Dallas had won, the Cowboys would be holding the 2nd seed today and the Saints could reclaim it only

with help.

But enough of hypothetical playoff scenarios. In the actual standings, Carolina holds

tiebreakers against the Falcons and Rams, but not against the Giants or Packers. Thus, a Giants victory

last night would make this game meaningless for both participating teams. If the Giants lost or tied, the

Panthers can win and knock out the Falcons and Rams, then make the playoffs themselves if the

Packers lose or tie tonight.

Team crown to New Orleans, are going to play a first-round playoff game. They win the division, and

thereby host one of the 8-8 wild card pretenders, if they finish ahead of the Eagles – basically, if they

win this game and the Eagles lose. Otherwise the Cowboys go to Seattle. As for the Lions, this is a

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

2

must-win game – for the Packers. If the Giants won last night, then the Lions must win this game or

the Packers are eliminated.

that’s meaningful to both teams. In fact, it’s meaningful to two other teams besides. The Titans make

the playoffs if they get to a tiebreaker with only themselves and the Chiefs. This means they’d have to

win, the Bengals would have to lose or tie, and the Chiefs would have to knock out Denver by winning

while the Broncos lose. The Patriots, meanwhile, have already won their division and cannot earn a

bye week. They can move from 4th seed to 3rd, for whatever that’s worth, by finishing ahead of the

Colts. It’s questionable whether that will motivate the Patriots – though if you’ve seen the way Coach

As for the two other teams I mentioned, those are the Jets and Jaguars. Say the Jets lose and the

Jaguars win, and at the same time the Bengals lose or tie. Then a Titans win here puts the Jets into the

playoffs, while a Titans loss or tie lets the Jaguars in. The reasoning is that the Jaguars have a

tiebreaker advantage over the Jets, the Jets have one over the Titans, and the Titans have one over the

Jaguars. In a two-way tie, the Jaguars eliminate the Jets. But in a three-way tie, the Titans-Jaguars

tiebreaker is evaluated first because those teams are in the same division. The Titans eliminate the

Jaguars, then are eliminated in turn by the Jets.

to both teams. Only the winner of this game can make the playoffs – and even then, probably not.

First, the Bengals would have to lose or tie. Then, if the Chiefs win, the Broncos would have to lose.

If the Jaguars win, the Jets would have to lose and the Titans would have to lose or tie. The funny

thing about this game is that it might determine a playoff seed for the Bengals. If the Bengals win and

the Jets win or tie, then the Bengals need the Chiefs’ help to knock Denver out of the tiebreaker. In

this scenario, neither the Jaguars nor the Chiefs can make the playoffs, but if the Chiefs don’t win this

game, then the Bengals are eliminated.

family, and degenerate gamblers. Oh, and Packers fans. This is the doomsday scenario where –

because the Giants beat Houston Nov. 5 – the result of this unseen exhibition between two bad teams

in one conference can determine who makes the playoffs in the other conference. If Houston wins, the

Giants improve their strength of victory. The Packers can’t afford that.

almost in if they lose. They’re eliminated in only two scenarios. One is if they compete with

Cincinnati and Denver at 9-7. This means the Jets lose, Cincinnati wins, and Kansas City fails to

conference record in this bunch. The other is if Denver wins the 5th seed and the Jets have to compete

with the Jaguars alone for the 6th seed. This means the Jets lose, Cincinnati loses or ties, Jacksonville

tiebreaker because they lost to the Jaguars head-to-head Oct. 8 (and it wasn’t close). The Raiders,

meanwhile, are out – way, way, way out.

the Super Bowl. For some time now, the league runner-up, year after year, has been sinking to the

bottom of the following year’s standings. This year it was the Steelers’ turn to suffer the curse – true,

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

3

the Steelers won the Super Bowl, technically, but this is more ammunition for Mike Holmgren to argue

that the Steelers should’ve lost and the officials screwed up the game.

The Steelers, wrapping up this disappointing season, are relegated to playing spoiler. The

Bengals cannot make the playoffs unless they win. Then even if they do, either the Jets have to lose, or

both the Jaguars and Broncos have to lose.

are locked into 4th seed, and a day off for fans of the 4-11 Buccaneers. This is another of those games

that will be monitored by Packers fans if the Giants won; the Packers will be rooting for Seattle.

because – well, first of all, no one should make the playoffs at 7-9. But in this case, it’s because they

were swept head-to-head by the Packers. The Rams have a shot at the playoffs if the Giants lost last

night and the Panthers lose now. They have to win, then sit back and wait for the Falcons to lose to the

Eagles. It’s that simple.

Oh, technically, they can also win if they tie. They would still need the Giants, Panthers, and

Falcons to lose, but it would be okay if the Packers merely tied instead of losing. Incidentally, this is

where I get to brag that my charts are the most complete, comprehensive, and accurate NFL playoff

information available anywhere. For example, take a look at the playoff scenarios officially released

figure out from those scenarios who makes the playoffs if the Rams and Packers finish 7-8-1 and the

Giants, Panthers, and Falcons are 7-9. It’s not there, is it? Okay, now try if the Rams and Falcons are

7-8-1. Answer: the Falcons, because of a strength-of-victory tiebreaker that’s very close but out of

reach for the Rams – but you’ll only find that out from me.

All right, maybe the guy at the NFL who whips these things out on Christmas Day could’ve

omitted a couple of outlying scenarios inadvertently. It takes me most of the week to get it right

(although in my defense, no one’s paying me to work on it full-time). But what about the guy at CBS

SportsLine who dressed up the scenarios with full sentences and little logos of all the teams – but

“5) GB tie + NYG loss + STL loss + ATL loss or tie + CAR loss or tie.” Correct, as far as it goes. (It’s

how’d that happen? It’s not only different but factually incorrect. For Green Bay to make the playoffs

with a tie and a St. Louis tie, either Carolina or Atlanta must also tie. That creates a three-way

tiebreaker, which neutralizes the St. Louis-over-Green Bay head-to-head two-way tiebreaker

advantage.

Or try this: “NFL tiebreaker expert” Joe Ferreira, a CBS SportsLine executive producer, posts

the Chiefs win, and the Broncos lose, then CIN can be the No. 5 seed. He also had before Week 16

that if the Jets won and the Bengals-Broncos game did not end in a tie, the Titans would be eliminated.

Now maybe the Bengals and Broncos would’ve wound up in a tie if the Bengals hadn’t flubbed an

extra point, but we’ll never know, and the point is that Ferreira got it wrong. Anyway, I’ll stop now.

I’ve neglected to let my record speak for itself.

1 http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9817776

2 http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/playoffrace/scenarios (as viewed Dec. 28 – see it before they fix it!)

3 http://www.sportsline.com/columns/weblogs/entry/9847051

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

4

Cowboys won or tied the early game. Then the Eagles have to match or outdo the Cowboys to hold on

to the division title. This would give the Eagles a home game in the first round. If they fall to second

place, they travel to Seattle in the first round. This game has meaning for the Falcons if neither the

Giants nor the Panthers won. Then the Falcons can make the playoffs with a win and a subsequent

Packers loss. (There are tie-game scenarios, too, which I won’t rehash here.) And finally, this game

has meaning for the Packers if the Giants and Panthers lost and the Rams won. (And not pie-in-the-sky

strength-of-victory meaning, either, but actual meaning.) In that scenario, a Falcons loss eliminates the

Packers. The Rams will beat the Packers in a two-way tiebreaker based on a head-to-head result

(“Favre’s Late Fumble Allows Rams to Get Away,” Associated Press, Oct. 8, 2006), but a Falcons win

makes this a three-way tiebreaker, which the Packers win based on conference record.

bit, made a recent crack involving Matt Vasgersian and J.C. Pearson, who inhabit a low rung of the

Fox broadcasting ladder. If Fox is contractually obligated to broadcast a game, but is only planning to

show it to the two TV markets involved, those are the guys they send. The joke wasn’t at their

expense: it was merely a surmise that they could’ve made their reservations for Cleveland six weeks in

advance to broadcast the Tampa Bay game there. To me, that’s one way to know you live in Arizona:

quality of their work. (A positive one, by the way.)

The Cardinals, who are only dangerous when they have nothing to play for, have nothing to

play for. Therefore, they are dangerous. The Chargers, though, have their bye week wrapped up. They

will have home-field advantage, too, unless they lose and the Ravens win. The game will be broadcast

only in Arizona and southern California.4

the Broncos can and will take this game off. If the Chiefs won, though, then the Broncos must win or

they will be eliminated. This reminds me of a few years ago when I was in Vegas and the way the early

games shook out, the Broncos could take their late game off. They were playing the Packers, who still

needed very much to win. In the minutes before game time, the line shifted tectonically and the

Broncos were suddenly getting +800 (bet $10 and if the Broncos win, you win $80). I thought, “No

matter how much the Broncos aren’t trying, they have better than an 8 to 1 shot at winning,” and bet on

them. Needless to say, the Packers rolled over them. The lesson, as always: I hate the Broncos.

the Colts need to match or outdo them in order to hold on to the 3rd seed. That admittedly isn’t much

of an incentive. But the Colts can also grab a bye week if they win and the Ravens lose. The Dolphins

don’t have much to play for except pride, but neither have a lot of the teams that have been beating the

Colts lately.

the Colts win. The Ravens get home-field advantage in the playoffs if they win and the Chargers lose.

All three of the relevant games are scheduled at the same time. I think that’s on purpose. Under flex

scheduling, the league had the ability to move some games from 1:00 to 4:15, and the Colts and Ravens

are the AFC games the league chose.

4 http://www.gribblenation.net/nflmaps/17-FOX-L.gif

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

5

Did you notice, by the way, that all the late games are at 4:15, with none at 4:05? (Or did you

notice in the first place that some late games used to be at 4:05?) The reason for this is that both

networks have doubleheaders this week. Yes, that’s right, if you’re not in the TV market of a home

contract this year.

Another little-noted but major improvement is that one network can now show highlights of a

over. This means there can be “game breaks” showing any game in the league and there can be more

highlight videos on halftime shows. This is a major improvement over last year, when a Fox halftime

show would go something like this: “Here’s a field goal in St. Louis … here’s a one-yard slant pass for

a touchdown in Green Bay … and whoa, there have been all kinds of spectacular plays in this

barnburner in Cincinnati, 28-24 at halftime – take our word for it.”

The jury is out on whether Monday night games on cable are an improvement. More people

overall watch TV on Sunday than on any other night, so for ratings’ sake, it made sense to move the

over-the-air broadcast to Sunday and the cable game to Monday. The swap was also a necessary part

of the agreement wherein CBS and Fox would let their games be yanked off their networks for “flex

scheduling.” But fans have been trained – for their entire lifetimes, if they’re any younger than I am –

to expect the best game of the week on Monday night. Or at least the league’s best attempt to schedule

the best game of the week (that’s where flex scheduling comes in). Sundays on ESPN were always

designed to give the bad and mediocre teams a shot at the spotlight. A culture grew up around the

Monday Night Football experience. The league wants to have its cake and eat it too: a bigger TV

audience on Sunday night, where the viewers are, and the sports-bar crowd on Monday night not caring

if their games are second-best. This will probably work. It might help if someone educated the fans to

expect less on Monday – not only lesser games, but because of cable-size salaries, lesser announcers.

But eventually people will get used to the new regime. I think it’s a net positive for the league.

The NFL Network, not so much. Taking your fans hostage in a firefight between yourself and

some billion-dollar cable companies is, at best, counterproductive. This is greedy and harms the

public. The same can be said of DirecTV’s exclusive grasp on the Sunday Ticket package, a monopoly

which has drawn the basilisk gaze of the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee. The league is on thin ice

here and, if wisdom prevails, will soon grab a rope.5

The one change I’d like to see in the league is the adoption of the college overtime system.

That’s not because the current system is unfair. I am unable to develop a full mathematical argument

involving field position, and how it differs on kickoffs versus punts, without completely making up my

figures and forgoing all credibility. However, it’s an empirical fact that the team winning the overtime

system because (a.) it’s compelling entertainment, and (b.) it eliminates ties. In a season like this,

when practically the entire league is within half a game of .500, the tiebreaker charts are inordinately

difficult. I’ve spent way too much time on this. But if tie-game scenarios didn’t exist, then the whole

league could be 8-8 and I could still knock this out in three hours.

Oh, and I have one game to go.

Tony Kornheiser of six years ago.)

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

6

broadcast in prime time as the last game of the regular season. If the Giants lost last night, then this

was a great choice because it’s almost guaranteed to decide whether the Packers or some other team

makes the playoffs. If the Giants won, though (or if the Panthers and Falcons lost and the Rams won),

then this is a mere exhibition, wherein Brett Favre tries to pad his statistics one last time against the

Bears’ second string. I’m assuming, of course, that the Packers lose the strength of victory tiebreaker;

by game time, we’ll know for sure, but it’s a pretty safe assumption. (I’m also making the wildly

unsupported assumption that this game will mark “one last time” for Brett Favre.) The Bears, for their

part, have clinched home-field advantage in the playoffs and will be resting their starters.

And now that I’m done, I too will be resting … uh, for starters. Tonight I’ll be proofreading

while watching the Holiday Bowl. Tomorrow night I’ll be taking questions while watching Texas

out) because the game is broadcast on the NFL Network. Yes, they have their tentacles everywhere.

And nothing says “NFL” like a college team from Lubbock.

The playoff analysis you are reading is, as far as I know, the best in the world. (If it’s not, I

want to know about it, so let me know.) Pass it on. Have fun and drive safely. Tip your waitress.

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

7

2006 Playoff Charts

AFC

Sun Sun Sun Sun

1:00 4:15 4:15 4:15

NE Buf Mia Phx

@Ten @Bal @Ind @SD #1 #2 #3 #4

========================================

NE Buf Mia* — SD Bal NE Ind

NE Buf Ind — SD Ind Bal NE

NE Bal Mia* Phx Bal SD NE Ind

NE Bal Mia* SD* SD Bal NE Ind

NE Bal Ind Phx Bal SD Ind NE

NE Bal Ind SD* SD Bal Ind NE

NE tie Mia* — SD Bal NE Ind

NE tie Ind — SD Bal Ind NE

Ten Buf Mia* — SD Bal Ind NE

Ten Buf Ind — SD Ind Bal NE

Ten Bal — Phx Bal SD Ind NE

Ten Bal — SD* SD Bal Ind NE

Ten tie — — SD Bal Ind NE

tie Buf Mia — SD Bal NE Ind

tie Buf Ind — SD Ind Bal NE

tie Buf tie — SD Bal Ind NE

tie Bal Mia Phx Bal SD NE Ind

tie Bal Mia SD* SD Bal NE Ind

tie Bal Ind* Phx Bal SD Ind NE

tie Bal Ind* SD* SD Bal Ind NE

tie tie Mia — SD Bal NE Ind

tie tie Ind* — SD Bal Ind NE

Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun

1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 4:15

Oak Pit Jax NE SF

@NYJ @Cin @KC @Ten @Den #5 #6

===================================

Oak Pit* Jax NE* — Den Jax

Oak Pit* Jax Ten — Den NYJ

Oak Pit* KC NE* SF NYJ KC

Oak Pit* KC NE* Den* Den NYJ

Oak Pit* KC Ten SF NYJ Ten

Oak Pit* KC Ten Den* Den NYJ

Oak Pit* tie — — Den NYJ

Oak Cin Jax* — — Den Cin

Oak Cin KC — SF Cin NYJ

Oak Cin KC — Den* Den Cin

NYJ Pit* Jax* — SF* NYJ Den

NYJ Pit* Jax* — Den Den NYJ

NYJ Pit* KC NE* SF NYJ KC

NYJ Pit* KC NE* Den Den NYJ

NYJ Pit* KC NE* tie NYJ Den

NYJ Pit* KC Ten SF NYJ Ten

NYJ Pit* KC Ten Den Den NYJ

NYJ Pit* KC Ten tie NYJ Den

NYJ Cin Jax* — SF* NYJ Den

NYJ Cin Jax* — Den Den NYJ

NYJ Cin KC — SF NYJ Cin

NYJ Cin KC — Den Den NYJ

NYJ Cin KC — tie NYJ Den

tie Pit* Jax* — SF NYJ Den

tie Pit* Jax* — Den* Den NYJ

tie Pit* KC NE* SF NYJ KC

tie Pit* KC NE* Den* Den NYJ

tie Pit* KC Ten SF NYJ Ten

tie Pit* KC Ten Den* Den NYJ

tie Cin Jax* — SF NYJ Den

tie Cin Jax* — Den* Den NYJ

tie Cin KC — SF NYJ Cin

tie Cin KC — Den* Den NYJ

*

In case of tie, read this row.

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

8

NFC (Simplified)

#1=Chi #2=NO #4=Sea

Sat Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun

8:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 4:15 8:30

NYG Car StL Det Atl GB

@Was @NO @Min @Dal @Phi @Chi #3 #5 #6

==============================================

NYG — — Det — GB Phi Dal NYG***

NYG — — Det — Chi Phi Dal NYG

NYG — — Dal Atl — Dal Phi NYG

NYG — — Dal Phi — Phi Dal NYG

Was Car — Det — GB Phi Dal GB

Was Car — Det — Chi Phi Dal Car

Was Car — Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB

Was Car — Dal Atl Chi Dal Phi Car

Was Car — Dal Phi GB Phi Dal GB

Was Car — Dal Phi Chi Phi Dal Car

Was NO StL Det Atl GB Phi Dal GB

Was NO StL Det Atl Chi Phi Dal Atl

Was NO StL Det Phi — Phi Dal StL

Was NO StL Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB

Was NO StL Dal Atl Chi Dal Phi Atl

Was NO StL Dal Phi — Phi Dal StL

Was NO Min Det Atl GB Phi Dal GB

Was NO Min Det Atl Chi Phi Dal Atl

Was NO Min Det Phi GB Phi Dal GB

Was NO Min Det Phi Chi Phi Dal NYG

Was NO Min Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB

Was NO Min Dal Atl Chi Dal Phi Atl

Was NO Min Dal Phi GB Phi Dal GB

Was NO Min Dal Phi Chi Phi Dal NYG

*** GB overtakes NYG in a tiebreaker based on strength of victory only in the

following limited scenario: First, Det must win. Second, either (a.) every one

of these seven teams wins: Cle, Min, NO, Sea, Mia, Phx, and SF, or (b.) six of

the listed teams win and one of them (except Min) ties. If (a.) or (b.) happens,

then GB is #6 and NYG is eliminated. If (c.) six of the listed teams win and one

of them (except Min) loses, (d.) five of the listed teams win and two of them

(other than Min) tie, or (e.) six of the listed teams win and Min ties, then GB

and NYG proceed to the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker. In all other cases,

including any case where Min loses, NYG is #6 and GB is eliminated.

In the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker, GB overtakes NYG only if the number

combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.”

NYG has a reasonably safe lead in this category.

For the purpose of calculating the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker, ties

count as half a win. For the tiebreaker to have reached this stage, StL cannot

have won, but may have tied.

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

9

NFC (Traditional)

#1=Chi #2=NO #4=Sea

Chart 1: Giants win

Sun Sun Sun

1:00 4:15 8:30

Det Atl GB

@Dal @Phi @Chi #3 #5 #6

=================================

Det — GB Phi Dal NYG***

Det — Chi* Phi Dal NYG

Dal Atl* — Dal Phi NYG

Dal Phi — Phi Dal NYG

tie Atl — Dal Phi NYG

tie Phi* — Phi Dal NYG

Chart 2: Giants lose or tie

Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun

1:00 1:00 1:00 4:15 8:30

Car StL Det Atl GB

@NO @Min @Dal @Phi @Chi #3 #5 #6

==========================================

Car — Det — GB Phi Dal GB

Car — Det — Chi* Phi Dal Car

Car — Dal Atl* GB Dal Phi GB

Car — Dal Atl* Chi* Dal Phi Car

Car — Dal Phi GB Phi Dal GB

Car — Dal Phi Chi* Phi Dal Car

Car — tie Atl GB Dal Phi GB

Car — tie Atl Chi* Dal Phi Car

Car — tie Phi* GB Phi Dal GB

Car — tie Phi* Chi* Phi Dal Car

NO* StL Det Atl GB Phi Dal GB

NO* StL Det Atl Chi* Phi Dal Atl

NO* StL Det Phi* — Phi Dal StL

NO* StL Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB

NO* StL Dal Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl

NO* StL Dal Phi — Phi Dal StL

NO* StL Dal tie — Dal Phi StL

NO* StL tie Atl GB Dal Phi GB

NO* StL tie Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl

NO* StL tie Phi* — Phi Dal StL

NO Min Det Atl GB Phi Dal GB

NO Min Det Atl Chi* Phi Dal Atl

NO Min Det Phi GB Phi Dal GB

NO Min Det Phi Chi Phi Dal NYG

NO Min Det Phi tie Phi Dal GB**

NO Min Det tie GB Phi Dal GB

NO Min Det tie Chi Phi Dal Atl**

NO Min Det tie tie Phi Dal GB**

NO Min Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB

NO Min Dal Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl

NO Min Dal Phi GB Phi Dal GB

NO Min Dal Phi Chi Phi Dal NYG

NO Min Dal Phi tie Phi Dal GB**

NO Min Dal tie GB Dal Phi GB

NO Min Dal tie Chi Dal Phi Atl**

NO Min Dal tie tie Dal Phi GB**

NO Min tie Atl GB Dal Phi GB

NO Min tie Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl

NO Min tie Phi GB Phi Dal GB

NO Min tie Phi Chi Phi Dal NYG

NO Min tie Phi tie Phi Dal GB**

NO Min tie tie GB Phi Dal GB

NO Min tie tie Chi Phi Dal Atl**

NO Min tie tie tie Phi Dal GB**

Sun Sun Sun Sun Sun

1:00 1:00 1:00 4:15 8:30

Car StL Det Atl GB

@NO @Min @Dal @Phi @Chi #3 #5 #6

==========================================

NO tie Det Atl GB Phi Dal GB

NO tie Det Atl Chi* Phi Dal Atl

NO tie Det Phi GB Phi Dal GB

NO tie Det Phi Chi* Phi Dal StL**

NO tie Det tie GB Phi Dal GB

NO tie Det tie Chi Phi Dal Atl**

NO tie Det tie tie Phi Dal GB**

NO tie Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB

NO tie Dal Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl

NO tie Dal Phi GB Phi Dal GB

NO tie Dal Phi Chi* Phi Dal StL**

NO tie Dal tie GB Dal Phi GB

NO tie Dal tie Chi Dal Phi Atl**

NO tie Dal tie tie Dal Phi GB**

NO tie tie Atl GB Dal Phi GB

NO tie tie Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl

NO tie tie Phi GB Phi Dal GB

NO tie tie Phi Chi* Phi Dal StL**

NO tie tie tie GB Phi Dal GB

NO tie tie tie Chi Phi Dal Atl**

NO tie tie tie tie Phi Dal GB**

tie Min* Det Atl GB Phi Dal GB

tie Min* Det Atl Chi* Phi Dal Atl

tie Min* Det Phi* GB Phi Dal GB

tie Min* Det Phi* Chi Phi Dal Car**

tie Min* Det Phi* tie Phi Dal GB**

tie Min* Dal Atl GB Dal Phi GB

tie Min* Dal Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl

tie Min* Dal Phi GB Phi Dal GB

tie Min* Dal Phi Chi Phi Dal Car**

tie Min* Dal Phi tie Phi Dal GB**

tie Min* Dal tie GB Dal Phi GB

tie Min* Dal tie Chi Dal Phi Car**

tie Min* Dal tie tie Dal Phi GB**

tie Min* tie Atl GB Dal Phi GB

tie Min* tie Atl Chi* Dal Phi Atl

tie Min* tie Phi* GB Phi Dal GB

tie Min* tie Phi* Chi Phi Dal Car**

tie Min* tie Phi* tie Phi Dal GB**

* In case of tie, read this row.

** In case of NYG tie, NYG is #6, replacing the team listed here.

*** See footnote to NFC Simplified chart.

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

10

2006 AFC Team-By-Team

own destiny for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They will be 1st seed if they win or tie

at home against Arizona, or if the Ravens lose or tie at home against Buffalo. They will be 2nd seed if

they lose and the Ravens win.

They will have a bye week if they win or tie at home against Buffalo, or the Colts lose or tie at home

against Miami. In addition, they will be 1st seed if they win and the Chargers lose at home against

Arizona. They will be 3rd seed, and host a first-round game, if they lose and the Colts win.

they win at home against Miami and the Ravens lose at home against Buffalo. Otherwise they will host

a first-round game. They will be 3rd seed if they win and the Ravens win or tie, if they lose and the

Patriots lose at Tennessee, or if they tie and the Patriots lose or tie. They will be 4th seed if they lose

and the Patriots win or tie, or if they tie and the Patriots win.

will be 3rd seed if they win at Tennessee and the Colts lose or tie at home against Miami, or if they tie

and the Colts lose. Otherwise they will be 4th seed.

win at home against San Francisco; or if they lose, the Jets lose at home against Oakland, and the

Chiefs lose or tie at home against Jacksonville. They will also be 5th seed if they tie and the Jets lose

or tie. They will be 6th seed if they lose, the Jets win or tie, and the Chiefs lose or tie; or if they tie and

the Jets win. They will be eliminated if they lose and the Chiefs win.

Oakland, they make the playoffs. They will then be 5th seed if the Broncos lose or tie at home against

San Francisco, or 6th seed if the Broncos win.

If they tie, they also make the playoffs. They will be 5th seed if the Broncos lose, or 6th seed if

the Broncos win or tie.

If they lose, they can be eliminated. The rest of this paragraph assumes that the Jets lose: They

will be 5th seed if (a.) the Bengals lose or tie at home against Pittsburgh and (b.) the Jaguars lose at

Kansas City and the Broncos lose. They will be 6th seed if (a.) the Bengals win and (b.) the Jaguars

and Broncos lose. They will also be 6th seed if (a.) the Bengals lose or tie and (b.) either (i.) the

Jaguars lose and the Broncos win or tie, (ii.) the Jaguars tie, or (iii.) the Jaguars win and the Titans win

at home against New England. They will be eliminated if (a.) the Bengals win and (b.) either the

Jaguars or Broncos, or both, win or tie. They will also be eliminated if (a.) the Bengals lose or tie and

(b.) the Jaguars win and the Titans lose or tie.

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

11

against Pittsburgh and either (a.) the Jets lose at home against Oakland or (b.) the Broncos lose at home

against San Francisco and the Jaguars lose at Kansas City, then they make the playoffs. If both (a.) and

(b.) happen, they will be 5th seed. If only one happens, they will be 6th seed. If neither one happens,

they will be eliminated.

home against Jacksonville, the Bengals lose or tie at home against Pittsburgh, and the Broncos lose at

home against San Francisco, then they will be 6th seed. Otherwise they will be eliminated.

against New England, the Bengals lose or tie at home against Pittsburgh, the Jaguars lose at Kansas

City, and the Broncos lose at home against San Francisco, then they will be 6th seed. Otherwise they

will be eliminated.

Kansas City, the Jets lose at home against Oakland, the Bengals lose or tie at home against Pittsburgh,

and the Titans lose or tie at home against New England, then they will be 6th seed. Otherwise they will

be eliminated.

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

12

2006 NFC Team-By-Team

throughout the playoffs.

Division. They will win the division, and host a first-round game, if they win at home against Atlanta,

if they lose and the Cowboys lose at home against Detroit, or if they tie and the Cowboys lose or tie.

Otherwise they will be a wild card. If they are division champions, they will be 3rd seed; if they are a

wild card, they will be 5th seed.

game, if they win at home against Detroit and the Eagles lose or tie at home against Atlanta, or if

they tie and the Eagles lose. Otherwise they will be a wild card. If they are division champions, they

will be 3rd seed; if they are a wild card, they will be 5th seed.

locked into the 4th seed and will play the Cowboys or Eagles.

playoffs if they lose. They cannot win the division and can only be the 6th seed wild card.

The Giants make the playoffs if they win at Washington and the Packers lose or tie at Chicago.

In addition, if the Giants and Packers both win, then the Giants make the playoffs as long as they beat

the Packers in a strength of victory tiebreaker. The Packers cannot win this tiebreaker if the Cowboys

win at home against Detroit, and are unlikely to win it even if the Cowboys lose.*

The Giants make the playoffs if they lose, as long as the Panthers lose at New Orleans, the

Rams lose at Minnesota, the Falcons lose at Philadelphia, and the Packers lose at Chicago. They make

the playoffs if they tie as long as all four of those opponents lose or tie.

eliminated if they lose.

The Packers make the playoffs if they win at Chicago, the Giants lose or tie at Washington, and

the Rams lose or tie at Minnesota. The Packers also make the playoffs if they win, the Giants lose or

Philadelphia, or both the Panthers and Falcons win.

In addition, the Packers make the playoffs if they win and the Giants win, but only if they beat

the Giants in a strength of victory tiebreaker. The Packers cannot win this tiebreaker if the Cowboys

win at home against Detroit, and are unlikely to win it even if the Cowboys lose.

The Packers make the playoffs if they tie, as long as the Giants lose, the Rams lose, the

Panthers lose or tie, and the Falcons lose or tie. The Packers also make the playoffs if they tie, the

Giants lose, and the Rams tie, as long as either the Panthers or Falcons tie, or both do.

* See footnotes to the NFC Chart for details of the strength of victory tiebreaker.

© 2006 Jonathan Elgart. May be freely distributed if copyright notice is preserved.

13

if they lose. The Panthers make the playoffs if they win at New Orleans, the Giants lose or tie at

Washington, and the Packers lose or tie at Chicago. The Panthers also make the playoffs if they tie, as

long as the Giants and Packers lose, the Rams lose or tie at Minnesota, and the Falcons lose or tie at

Philadelphia.

eliminated if they lose. The Falcons make the playoffs if they win at Philadelphia, the Giants lose or

tie at Washington, the Panthers lose or tie at New Orleans, and the Packers lose or tie at Chicago. The

Falcons also make the playoffs if they tie, the Giants, Panthers, and Packers all lose, and the Rams lose

or tie at Minnesota.

eliminated if they lose. The Rams make the playoffs if they win at Minnesota, the Giants lose or tie at

Washington, the Panthers lose or tie at New Orleans, and the Falcons lose or tie at Philadelphia. The

Rams also make the playoffs if they tie, the Giants, Panthers, and Falcons all lose, and the Packers lose

or tie at Chicago.

either a six-way tie for the 6th seed with the Giants, Packers, Panthers, Falcons, and Rams or a sevenway

tie with those teams plus the 49ers. In either case, the Packers eliminate the Vikings on account of

a head-to-head sweep.

seven-way tie for the 6th seed with the Giants, Packers, Panthers, Falcons, Rams, and Vikings. In that

case, the 49ers eliminate the Rams by superior division record, but after the Packers eliminate the

Vikings by head-to-head tiebreaker, the Giants and Packers eliminate all their other opponents,

including the 49ers, by superior conference record.